1951-2010年中国季平均降水高精度曲面建模分析
Surface modeling of seasonal mean precipitation in China during 1951-2010
查看参考文献28篇
|
文摘
|
利用1951-2010年中国711个气象观测站的月降水资料,对多年季平均降水根据中国农业气候类型进行分区模拟。针对中国降水特点,首先分析了影响各分区降水的地理、地形因素及局部地形因素,利用多项式回归和逐步回归的方法对各分区降水进行了趋势拟合;在此基础上,采用改进的高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法,对各模拟区域去掉趋势后的残差进行迭代修正,并比较验证了模拟效果。同时,为保证HASM在边界附近的模拟精度,根据区域内站点间的距离,对每一分区设置一个缓冲区,将HASM实际插值区域扩展为缓冲区内的部分。模拟结果表明:HASM方法的模拟精度在不同区域不同季节内均比经典的插值方法模拟精度高。利用上述方法分析了同一季节各分区降水的分布特点,并模拟了不同季节内多年平均降水的空间分布状况,模拟结果符合我国降水的实际分布特点。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
The demand for spatial data sets of precipitation in digital form has risen dramatically in recent years. This paper describes a new surface modeling method, high accuracy and high speed method(HASM), which has been successfully used for digital elevation model(DEM) construction and ecosystem changes. We explored the relationship between precipitation and geographical/topographical variables and local topographical factors, developed a polynomial regression model for seasonal precipitation in each region, and then used symmetric successive over-relaxation method and preconditioned conjugate gradient method to solve the matrix equations produced by HASM, which effectively improved the model. We used ArcGIS to create buffers with a specific distance around each subarea, and the actual computational domain expanded to the buffer area. Polynomial regression and residuals interpolation using HASM were applied to develop a gridded precipitation database for China in seasonal scales with a resolution of 1 km in longitude and latitude. We used precipitation data measured at 711 stations during the period of 1951-2010, with 80% of them used for surface development and 20% reserved for validation tests. Accuracy tests revealed that HASM is superior to the classical methods such as Kriging, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Spline. Precipitation surfaces generated by HASM showed good performance in precipitation research. Therefore, HASM can be considered as an alternative and accurate method for precipitation interpolation in China. |
|
来源
|
地理科学进展
,2013,32(1):49-58 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
高精度曲面建模
;
季平均降水
;
多项式回归
;
插值
;
中国
|
|
地址
|
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京, 100101
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1007-6301 |
|
学科
|
大气科学(气象学) |
|
基金
|
国家重大科学研究计划
;
国家自然科学基金国家杰出青年科学基金
;
国家自然科学基金重点项目
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:4756493
|
参考文献 共
28
共2页
|
|
1.
Bannayan M. Weather conditions associated with irrigated crops in an arid and semi arid environment.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2011,151(12):1589-1598
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
Cai X M. Impact of climate change on crop yield: A case study of Rainfed corn in central Illinois.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2009,48(9):1868-1881
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
Daly C. Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States.
International Journal of Climatology,2008,28(15):2031-2064
|
CSCD被引
24
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
Daly C. A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountatinous terrain.
Journal of Applied Meteorology,1994,33(2):140-158
|
CSCD被引
54
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
邓祖新.
数据分析方法和SAS 系统,2006
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
Golub G H.
Matrix Computations,2009
|
CSCD被引
9
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
郝成元. 中国气候变化敏感区降水量区域对比----以黑龙江,新疆和西藏三省区为例.
地理科学进展,2011,30(1):73-79
|
CSCD被引
13
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
Hutchinson M F. The application of thin-plate smoothing splines to continent-wide data assimilation.
Data Assimilation Systems (BMRC Research Report No. 27),1991:104-113
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
Joly D. Temperature interpolation based on local information: The example of France.
International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(14):2141-2153
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
Kleijen J P C. Robustness of kriging when interpolating in random simulation with heterogeneous variances: Some experiments.
European Journal of Operational Research,2005,165(3):826-834
|
CSCD被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
李世奎.
中国农业气候资源和农业气候区划,1988
|
CSCD被引
63
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
刘新安. 中国陆地生态信息空间化技术研究(Ⅲ)--温度、降水等气候要素.
自然资源学报,2004,19(6):818-825
|
CSCD被引
54
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
Marquinez J. Estimation models for precipitation in mountainous regions: The use of GIS and multivariate analysis.
Journal of Hydrology,2003,270(1/2):1-11
|
CSCD被引
39
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
Moulin L. Uncertainties on mean areal precipitation: Assessment and impact on stream flow simulations.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2009,13(2):99-114
|
CSCD被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
Nalder I A. Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: Test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,1998,92(4):211-225
|
CSCD被引
81
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
Price D T. A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2000,101(2/3):81-94
|
CSCD被引
96
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
Schoonmakers S J.
The CAD Guidebook,2003
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
Shi W J. Surface modeling of soil PH.
Geoderma,2009,150(1/2):113-119
|
CSCD被引
39
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
Sinoweki W. Regionalization of soil water retention curves in a highly variable soils cape: II. Comparison of regionalization procedures using a pedotransfer function.
Geoderma,1997,78(3/4):145-159
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
汤国安.
ArcGis 地理信息系统空间分析实验教程,2006
|
CSCD被引
9
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问