汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常
Large Scale LURR Anomaly before Wenchuan Earthquake

尹祥础 ¹ 张浪平 ² 张永仙 ² 彭克银 ² 王海涛 ² 宋治平 ² 李文军 ¹ 张晓涛 ³ 袁帅 ²

文摘	孕震初期加卸载响应比(LURR)通常在1左右涨落,然后逐渐上升至峰值点。但强地震并不在峰值点上发生,而要滞后一段时间(T2)。T2与震级有关,震级越大,T2越长。对于8级地震,T2的计算值为28±8个月,汶川8级地震实际的T2是23个月。对于大地震,T2很长,峰值点后LURR通常迅速下降,在大地震前夕LURR常常降得很低,而预测的地震又迟迟没有发生,这种情况下很容易误导人们怀疑,甚至放弃原来的预测,殊不知,这时大地震正在迫近。这正是汶川8级地震给予人们血的教训。大地震不仅孕育时间长,孕震区面积也很大。大地震的前兆在时空上都是大尺度。基于这种认识,根据LURR的演化,中国大陆西南地区可能正在孕育一个特大地震。
其他语种文摘	The Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) value fluctuates around 1.0 during the early stage of the seismogenic process and then gradually reaches its peak point(PP),but strong earthquakes do not onset at that time and will occur sometime later.This lag time(T2) depends on magnitude of the impending earthquake.The larger the magnitude,the longer the lag time T2 will be.For a large earthquake like M8,the anticipated T2 is 28±8 months and the real T2 for Wenchuan earthquake was 23 months.After the peak point,LURR decreases sharply and T2 lasts a long time.Therefore at the eve of a large event LURR would be very low,but the predicted earthquake has not happened yet.In such a case,it is easy to doubt and even give up a correct prediction.That was the blood lesson to us from Wenchuan earthquake.A large earthquake should prepare not only for a long time,but also in a vast region.In one word,the LURR anomaly(and also the other precursors perhaps) of a large earthquake will be revealed in large temporal and spatial scales.Based on this insight we predict that a super large earthquake is prepared in south-western China.
来源	地震 ,2009,29(1):53-59 【核心库】
关键词	汶川8级地震 ; 加卸载响应比 ; 地震前兆 ; 大时空观
地址	1. 中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京, 100036 2. 中国科学院力学研究所, 非线性力学国家重点实验室, 北京, 100190 3. 中国地震台网中心, 北京, 100045
语种	中文
文献类型	研究性论文
ISSN	1000-3274
学科	地球物理学
基金	国家自然科学基金
文献收藏号	CSCD:3488901