Least Squares Model Averaging Based on Generalized Cross Validation
查看参考文献39篇
文摘
|
Frequentist model averaging has received much attention from econometricians and statisticians in recent years. A key problem with frequentist model average estimators is the choice of weights. This paper develops a new approach of choosing weights based on an approximation of generalized cross validation. The resultant least squares model average estimators are proved to be asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible squared errors. Especially, the optimality is built under both discrete and continuous weigh sets. Compared with the existing approach based on Mallows criterion, the conditions required for the asymptotic optimality of the proposed method are more reasonable. Simulation studies and real data application show good performance of the proposed estimators. |
来源
|
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica-English Series
,2021,37(3):495-509 【核心库】
|
DOI
|
10.1007/s10255-021-1024-x
|
关键词
|
asymptotic optimality
;
frequentist model averaging
;
generalized cross validation
;
mallows criterion
|
地址
|
1.
School of Mathematics and Statistics,Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266071
2.
School of Mathematical Sciences,Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100048
3.
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190
4.
Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence, Beijing, 100084
5.
College of Science,Minzu University of China, Beijing, 100081
|
语种
|
英文 |
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
ISSN
|
0168-9673 |
学科
|
数学 |
基金
|
supported by National Key R&D Program of China
;
国家科技部项目
;
国家自然科学基金
;
a joint grant from the Academy for Multidisciplinary Studies, Capital Normal University
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:7013765
|
参考文献 共
39
共2页
|
1.
Ando T. A weight-relaxed model averaging approach for high dimensional generalized linear models.
Annals of Statistics,2007,45:2654-2679
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
2.
Bates J M. The combination of forecasts.
Operations Research Quarterly,1969,20:451-468
|
CSCD被引
302
次
|
|
|
|
3.
Buckland S T. Model selection: an integral part of inference.
Biometrics,1997,53:603-618
|
CSCD被引
45
次
|
|
|
|
4.
Burnham K P.
Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Infromation-Theoretic Approach,2002
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
5.
Clyde M A. Model uncertainty.
Statistical Science,2004,19:81-94
|
CSCD被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
6.
Craven P. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions: Estimating the correct degree of smoothing by the method of generalized cross-validation.
Numerische Mathematik,1979,31:377-403
|
CSCD被引
57
次
|
|
|
|
7.
Danilov D. Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market.
Journal of Forecasting,2004,23:251-274
|
CSCD被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
8.
Draper D. Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B,1995,57:45-70
|
CSCD被引
35
次
|
|
|
|
9.
Gao Y. Frequentist model averaging for threshold models.
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,2019,71:275-306
|
CSCD被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
10.
Gao Y. Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross validation.
Journal of Econometrics,2016,192:139-151
|
CSCD被引
19
次
|
|
|
|
11.
Hansen B E. Least squares model averaging.
Econometrica,2007,75:1175-1189
|
CSCD被引
63
次
|
|
|
|
12.
Hansen B E. Least squares forecast averaging.
Journal of Econometrics,2008,146:342-350
|
CSCD被引
17
次
|
|
|
|
13.
Hansen B E. Averaging estimators for fegressions with a possible structural break.
Econometric Theory,2009,25:1498-1514
|
CSCD被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
14.
Hansen B E. Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root.
Journal of Econometrics,2010,158:142-155
|
CSCD被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
15.
Hjort N L. Frequentist model average estimators.
Journal of the American Statistical Association,2003,98:879-899
|
CSCD被引
35
次
|
|
|
|
16.
Hoeting J A. Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial.
Statistical Science,1999,14:382-417
|
CSCD被引
79
次
|
|
|
|
17.
Koop G. Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging.
Econometrics Journal,2004,7:550-565
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
18.
Leung G. Infromation theory and mixing least-squares regressions.
IEEE Transactions on Information Theory,2006,52:3396-3410
|
CSCD被引
11
次
|
|
|
|
19.
Li K C. Asymptotic optimality for Cp, Cl, cross-validation and generalized cross-validation: Discrete index set.
The Annals of Statistics,1987,15:958-975
|
CSCD被引
17
次
|
|
|
|
20.
Mallows C L. Some comments on Cp.
Technometrics,1973,15:661-675
|
CSCD被引
45
次
|
|
|
|
|