基于新型城镇化视角的区域PRED系统综合评价——以大连为例
Comprehensive assessment of regional PRED system based on new urbanization approach: a case study in Dalian
查看参考文献28篇
|
文摘
|
基于中国在推进以“人”为核心的新型城镇化过程中人口、资源、环境与经济、社会发展诸要素相互促进或相互制约的复杂关系视角,借鉴人口承载力思想,提出区域PRED系统承载力概念及其表征方法,参考压力—状态—响应模型(PSR),构建了区域PRED系统的承载力—压力—状态—响应评价指标体系(CPSR 模型),在此基础上提出区域PRED系统综合响应度与应急响应级别划分标准,通过多目标规划与决策方法对区域PRED系统进行综合评价。以2000-2012年大连市PRED系统为例进行实证分析,结果显示:①研究时段内大连市PRED系统一直处于超载状态,人口承载力由363万人降至291万人;②大连市PRED系统压力低于全国平均水平,区域PRED系统负荷指数由0.97降至0.85,区域PRED系统综合响应级别始终处于Ⅱ级橙色预警或Ⅲ级黄色预警状态。评价结果基本符合近年来大连市有关资源、环境及经济、社会发展的客观实际,评价结果可视性较强、可靠性较高。区域 PRED系统承载力概念以及基于CPSR模型的区域PRED系统综合评价指标体系、多目标决策评价方法,为定量评价区域可持续发展提供了一种新的思路和方法,对新型城镇化背景下的相关政策制定具有一定参考价值。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
At present, China is in the process of rapid urbanization. The traditional urban development approach urgently needs to be transformed into a new urbanization model that is intelligent, green and low-carbon. Meanwhile, coordinated urban-rural development and regional integrative development have gained greater importance. In order to systematically assess the quality of China's urbanization under the new situation, the comprehensive assessment method of regional PRED system was proposed considering the complicated relationship between population, resources, environment and economic and social development(PRED), which are mutually stimulating but also restricting. This paper proposes the concept and characterization method of regional PRED carrying capacity. By learning from the Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model, the assessment index system of regional PRED on Carrying capacity-Pressure-State-Response was established. A comprehensive responsiveness and emergency response grade categorization method was proposed to assess regional PRED system by multi-objective planning and decision making. Using Dalian city as an example, this study empirically analyzes the above-mentioned concept, model, assessment index system and assessment method. The results show that during 2000-2012, PRED system of Dalian was in a state of overload, that regional population carrying capacity decreased from 3630 thousand to 2910 thousand persons. Compared with nationwide levels, the pressure of Dalian PRED system was relative low with a decreasing trend: the load index of regional PRED system dropped from 0.97 to 0.85. Comprehensive responsiveness of regional PRED in Dalian was above 0.6 and emergency response grade was GradeⅡ(orange) or Grade Ⅲ(yellow). The results indicate that because of resource scarcity and environmental degradation, the population carrying capacity of Dalian was gradually decreasing. Due to the continuous development of economy and social security, the pressure of urbanization in Dalian has been relieved. In the future, relevant government departments should seek to actively solve the problem of resources and environmental constraints of new urbanization, resolve the conflicts that hindered the sustainable development of economy and society, promote regional coordinated development through reasonably managing the urban size and resources allocation and practicing environmental protection, industrial transformation and livelihood security improvement. By comparing with similar studies and further discussion, the results of this paper are considered as reliable and conforming to the reality of Dalian in population, resources, environment and economic and social development. The concept of regional PRED carrying capacity and the assessment index system based on the carrying capacity PSR model and multi-objective decision-making method provide a new thought and method to quantitatively assess the quality of urbanization and regional sustainable development. |
|
来源
|
地理科学进展
,2014,33(3):364-374 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
区域可持续发展
;
PRED系统
;
PSR模型
;
人口承载力
;
多目标决策
;
大连市
|
|
地址
|
1.
辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院, 国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室, 辽宁, 大连, 116029
2.
辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院, 辽宁, 大连, 116029
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1007-6301 |
|
学科
|
自然地理学 |
|
基金
|
国土资源部资源与环境承载力评价重点实验室开放课题项目
;
辽宁省社科规划项目
;
国家教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:5106154
|
参考文献 共
28
共2页
|
|
1.
曹利军. 区域PRED系统可持续发展判别原理和方法.
中国环境科学,1998,18(Z1):50-53
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
柴箐. 区域城市规模与网络中心性的关系分析——基于山东省基本部门链接网络的讨论.
地理科学进展,2012,31(12):1656-1667
|
CSCD被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
陈长杰. 基于可持续发展的中国经济-资源系统协调性分析.
系统工程,2004,22(3):34-39
|
CSCD被引
14
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
陈云峰. 突变级数法在生态适宜度评价中的应用——以镇江新区为例.
生态学报,2006,26(8):2587-2593
|
CSCD被引
35
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
戴志军. 主成分分析在城市PRED系统可持续发展研究中的应用: 以广东省所辖21个城市为例.
热带地理,2002,22(3):261-265
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
郭长雷. 贵阳市环境经济系统协调发展策略分析.
长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(4):427-433
|
CSCD被引
12
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
何池全. 吉林省典型湿地生态评价.
应用生态学报,2001,12(5):754-756
|
CSCD被引
42
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
黄明知. PRED 系统可持续发展五要素典型组合模式.
长江流域资源与环境,2005,14(2):159-162
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
李孝坤. 重庆都市区PRED系统演进的定量分析.
重庆师范大学学报: 自然科学版,2008,25(1):29-33
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
毛汉英. 县域经济和社会同人口、资源、环境协调发展研究.
地理学报,1991,46(4):63-67
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
毛汉英.
人地系统与区域持续发展研究,1995
|
CSCD被引
23
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
毛汉英. 环渤海地区区域承载力研究.
地理学报,2001,56(3):363-371
|
CSCD被引
99
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
双文元. 基于信息熵和协整理论的新疆土地利用时空动态分析.
中国农学通报,2011,27(6):249-255
|
CSCD被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
隋丽丽. 90年代以来大连城市人居环境的变化分析.
哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报,2005,21(6):98-102
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
汤铃. 基于距离协调度模型的系统协调发展定量评价方法.
系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(4):594-602
|
CSCD被引
32
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
王丹. 城市承载力分区方法研究.
地理科学进展,2011,30(5):577-584
|
CSCD被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
王雅丽. 区域PRED系统的综合协调度评价研究.
工业技术经济,2008,27(11):123-125
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
王铮. PRED问题与地理工程.
中国人口·资源与环境,1992,2(2):45-47
|
CSCD被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
魏婷. 突变级数法在厦门城市生态安全评价中的应用.
应用生态学报,2008,19(7):1522-1528
|
CSCD被引
28
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
姚鲁烽. 地理学时空变化类论文的写作.
地理学报,2013,68(7):1007-1011
|
CSCD被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问