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跨期选择的变易程度正向预测中华文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效:亚非欧美大洋洲18国跨国研究
Changes in the intertemporal choice of people in or close to Chinese culture can predict their self-rated surviving achievement in the fight against COVID-19: A cross-national study in 18 Asian, African, European, American, and Oceanian countries

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沈丝楚 1,2   希喜格 3   丁阳 2,4   马家涛 5   杨舒雯 2,4   匡仪 2,4   许明星 2,6   John Taplin 7   李纾 2,4,5 *  
文摘 跨期选择是对不同时间点的得失的权衡与选择。伊索寓言《蚂蚁和蚱蜢》假借群居型昆虫的跨期选择偏爱暗喻投资未来的慢策略比只顾眼前的快策略更利于生存。用跨期选择领域通用的语言解读这一寓言便是:选择大而迟选项的蚂蚁比选择小而早选项的蚱蜢更可能扛过严冬而生存下来。为了探索何种跨期选择策略更有助于我们扛过疫情,本研究调查了亚非欧美大洋洲这5大洲18个国家共计26355名受测者对混合得失双结果的跨期选择偏爱,测量了人们平时和疫时跨期选择偏爱的变易程度(2类变易的程度指标),以及人们自评的扛疫成效。跨文化比较结果的主要发现是:不同通货的选择变易程度(指标1)和不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)能联合预测中国/新加坡文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)也可以单独预测印度/马来西亚/菲律宾/尼日利亚文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;这2类选择偏爱变易的程度指标不能预测其他文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效(或者预测方向和假设相反)。基于易经"穷则变,变则通"的要旨和跨国比较的发现,我们认为:面临历史危机时善于变通的特长抑或成就了中华民族特有的竞争优势;在应对危机时,与中国文化距离越相近的国家或民族抑或也能越受益于类似的竞争优势。
其他语种文摘 Humans are facing an unprecedented historical crisis and challenge. To identify the strategies that we can use to cope with historical crisis and challenge, we should investigate two well-studied strategies: "slow strategy, " which is essentially an investment in the future, and "fast strategy" or "live fast, die young." According to "The Ant and the Grasshopper, " Aesop's fable, which is under the pretext of intertemporal choice of social insects, the "slow" rather than the "fast" strategy is recommended for those who want to survive the environmental crisis. Intertemporal choice requires tradeoffs among outcomes whose effects occur at different times. In the commonly accepted language of intertemporal choice, the Ant, whose choice is the "larger but later" (LL) option, is more likely to survive the harsh winter than the Grasshopper, whose choice is the "smaller but sooner" (SS) option. To determine the optimal intertemporal choice strategy that can help us to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, we included 26, 355 participants from 18 Asian, African, European, American, and Oceanian countries in the present study. We investigated the participants' preferences in intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, evaluated the degree of change in their intertemporal choice by differentiating the common currency in peacetime and epidemic time (i.e., two kinds of change indicators used for differentiating currencies and stages, respectively). We then asked them to rate their self-rated surviving achievement in the fight against COVID-19. Considering that individuals' surviving achievements were affected by individual- and religious-level factors, we analyzed all data by using multilevel linear analysis to reflect the data's hierarchical structure. After considering individual differences in personal factors and religious factors, we constructed two-level models to explore the effects of the change in intertemporal choice on self-rated surviving achievement, and measured the moderating role of cultural orientation in terms of Hofstede's six culture dimensions. The findings of the cross-national survey revealed that Change Indicator 1 (Δ currency) and Change Indicator 2 (Δ stage) of Chinese/Singaporeans could jointly predict their self-rated surviving achievement. Meanwhile, only Change Indicator 2 (Δ stage) alone could predict the self-rated surviving achievement of people in the cultural circle that included the India, Malaysia, Philippines, and Nigeria. Neither Change Indicator 1 (Δ currency) nor Change Indicator 2 (Δ stage) of the people in other cultures could significantly predict their self-rated surviving achievement. On the basis of the gist of The Book of Change and the resulting findings, we suggested that 1) how you differentially (flexibly) made an intertemporal choice in peacetime and epidemic time would reflect the extent to which you would survive the war against COVID-19. In addition, 2) the mindset of change might shape the competitive advantage of a nation, such as China, in response to the historical crisis. The closer the cultural distance of a country or nation from China, the greater the possibility of benefitting from a similar competitive advantage. It is our hope that our findings would contribute to answer the question of what are "Psychological Characteristics and Behaviors of Chinese People in Response to Historical Crisis?"
来源 心理学报 ,2023,55(3):435-455 【核心库】
DOI 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2023.00435
关键词 混合得失双结果的跨期选择 ; 跨期选择偏爱的变易 ; 自评扛疫成效 ; 变通 ; 多国跨国比较
地址

1. 福建师范大学心理学院, 福州, 350108  

2. 中国科学院心理研究所, 中国科学院行为科学重点实验室, 北京, 100101  

3. 蒙古国立大学教育与心理学系, 蒙古, 乌兰巴托  

4. 中国科学院大学心理系, 北京, 100049  

5. 浙江大学心理与行为科学系, 杭州, 310007  

6. 福建工程学院交通运输学院, 福州, 350118  

7. 阿德莱德大学, 澳大利亚, 阿德莱德, 5005

语种 中文
文献类型 研究性论文
ISSN 0439-755X
学科 社会科学总论
基金 国家自然科学基金项目 ;  国家社会科学基金重大项目 ;  福建省社会科学规划一般项目
文献收藏号 CSCD:7418971

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1 沈丝楚 折扣还是权衡:混合得失双结果跨期决策的理论探索 心理科学进展,2023,31(7):1121-1132
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