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内蒙古地区1960-2016年气温和降水特征及突变
Characteristics and Abrupt Change of Temperature and Precipitation in Inner Mongolia Area Over the Period 1960-2016

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马梓策 ¹ 于红博 ^1,2 ^* 张巧凤 ^1,2 曹聪明 ¹

文摘	利用内蒙古地区1960-2016年45个气象站的逐月气温和降水量数据,通过线性倾向估计、径向基函数插值法、累积距平、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall法和小波分析,研究了内蒙古气温和降水量的时空变化特征和突变现象。结果表明:内蒙古近57年来气温呈显著上升趋势,明显高于全球年均温增温率,达0.38℃/10a,且在1987年发生增温突变;四季气温中,春季和冬季均温升高对年均温上升贡献度最大;年均温和季均温年代际变化呈明显的增暖趋势,年均温、季均温在1990-1999年开始变暖;内蒙古年均温和增温率二者分布规律相同,即:东部<中部<西部。内蒙古年降水量呈不显著上升趋势,年降水量倾向率自西向东呈现出增-减-增的趋势,降水量最少的年代为2000- 2009年,降水量最多的年代为1990-1999年,降水量增率为0.47 mm/10a,且在1999年发生由丰水到枯水、2011年发生由枯水到丰水的两次突变;两季降水量中,内蒙古雨季降水量呈减少趋势,非雨季降水量呈增加趋势,且增加量和减少量均为东部>中部>西部。小波分析显示,1960-2016年内蒙古年均温变化以15a的周期为最强;年降水量变化以11a的周期为最强。通过以上分析,1960-2016年内蒙古气候正在由暖干化向暖湿化转型。
其他语种文摘	Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 45 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016,various methods such as Linear Tendency Estimation,Radial Basis Function Interpolation,Cumulative Anomaly,Sliding t-test,Mann-Kendall Method and Wavelet Analysis were used to explore the temporal and spatial variation characteristics related to the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia over a 57-year period.The results showed that during the 57 year period the temperature in Inner Mongolia had presented the significant upward trend,which was significantly higher than the global average annual temperature increase rate,and reached up to 0.38 Celsius per decade.An abnormal temperature increase occurred in 1987.Of the four seasons,the average temperature rise in spring and winter contributed the most to the annual average temperature rise.The interannual variation of annual average and seasonal average temperature showed a significant warming trend,and the annual and seasonal average temperature began to increase in the period 1990-1999.The average annual temperature and the temperature increase rate in Inner Mongolia followed the same pattern which was the highest in the west,followed by the middle,and the lowest in the east.The annual precipitation showed no significant upward trend in Inner Mongolia.The annual precipitation propensity rate showed the increase-decrease-increase trend from west to east.The periods with the least amount of precipitation were found during the period from 2000 to 2009,and the periods with the most precipitation were observed in the period 1990-1999.The precipitation increase rate was 0.47 mm per decade and there were two mutations.In 1999,precipitation changed from abundant water to lack of water and in 2011,from lack-of-water to abundant water.The precipitation in the rainy season showed the decreasing trend,and the increasing trend in the dry season.The amounts of increase and decrease were the greatest in the east,followed by the middle,and the lowest in the west.Based on the wavelet analysis,the average annual temperature change in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016 was the strongest in the period of 15 years;the annual precipitation change was the strongest in the 11-year cycle.This study draws the conclusion that the climate was transforming from warm-drying to warming-humidification in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016.
来源	水土保持研究 ,2019,26(3):114-121 【扩展库】
关键词	气候变化 ; 气温 ; 降水 ; 内蒙古
地址	1. 内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院, 呼和浩特, 010022 2. 内蒙古师范大学, 内蒙古遥感与地理信息系统重点实验室, 呼和浩特, 010022
语种	中文
文献类型	研究性论文
ISSN	1005-3409
学科	大气科学(气象学)
基金	国家自然科学基金 ; 内蒙古自治区自然科学资助项目 ; 内蒙古高等学校科研项目
文献收藏号	CSCD:6463841

参考文献共 25 共2页

引证文献 13 篇

1 侯钰儿内蒙古西部地区蒺藜科花粉光学显微特征与分类学意义生态学杂志,2020,39(8):2509-2517
被引 2 次

2 马梓策中国植被覆盖度时空特征及其影响因素分析长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(6):1310-1321
被引 14 次

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论文科学数据集

1. 基于站点数据外推新疆地区气温和降水数据集（1961-1990）

2. 青藏高原东北部0.25度气候数据集（1957-2009）

3. 祁连山天老池流域自动气象站数据集（2011-2012）

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国家青藏高原科学数据中心

1. 2011-2021年雅砻江流域逐日气温降水格点数据集

2. 基于优化参数的陕西省多年平均气温、降水数据集

3. 中国10年平均水热条件变化公里网格数据集（1951-2010）

数据来源：

国家对地观测科学数据中心

PlumX Metrics

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