“泛西南”地区加卸载响应比异常及大震活动预测与追踪
LURR Anomaly,Prediction and Tracking of Large Earthquakes in the Pan-southwestern Region
查看参考文献34篇
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文摘
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21世纪初,在中国西南及周边地区(本文称为“泛西南”)开始出现大面积的加卸载响应比(以下简称LURR)异常,根据LURR异常演化,我们于2008年首次提出该地区正在孕育着 “超大地震”。追踪研究结果显示,孕震积分I_t于2012年7月达到峰值。根据LURR与量纲分析方法结合得到的预测地震时空强的新方法,我们预测:2015年7月前后(±25月),在“泛西南”地区将发生8级左右“超大地震”。我们在2014年参加的两次会议上交流了这一预测结果, 2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1强震发生在预测范围内。尼泊尔M_S8.1地震后,“泛西南”地区的加卸载响应比大尺度异常不仅没有消退,反而更加增强。I_t于2015年7月达到新峰值,超过了尼泊尔地震前的水平,因此,“泛西南”地区可能仍面临非常严重的地震灾害。 |
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其他语种文摘
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At the beginning of the 21 st century,a large scale of LURR anomaly emerged in Southwestern China and its surrounding area(called“Pan south-western”in this paper). The ensuing continuous study showed that this anomaly was not only degrading,but intensifying(increasing of seismogenic integral).According to the evolution of LURR anomaly, we first pointed out that a“super-large earthquake”was preparing in the region at a meeting in 2008.The tracking study showed the seismogenic integral of LURR,denoted as I_t,was peaked in July,2012.According to the improved method obtained by LURR combining with dimensional analysis,we predicted that an earthquake of M>8 would occur in the “Pan south-western China”during the time of July 2015 minus or plus 25 months,and the prediction was reported at two meetings in 2014.The 25~(th) April 2015 Nepal M_S8.1 earthquake occurred in the range of the prediction.After the strong event,the degree of LURR anomaly in the“Pan south-western China”was increasing instead of dropping. I_t has reached a new high value,which is greater than the peak value before the Nepal M_S8.1. I_t implies that the region is probably about to face a very serious earthquake risk. |
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来源
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地震
,2017,37(4):37-49 【核心库】
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关键词
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大地震预测
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加卸载响应比
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量纲分析
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孕震积分
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“泛西南”地区
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尼泊尔M_S8.1地震
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地址
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1.
中国地震局地震预测研究所, 非线性力学国家重点实验室, 北京, 100036
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中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京, 100036
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长安大学岩土力学研究所, 陕西, 西安, 710064
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中国地震台网中心, 北京, 100045
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-3274 |
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学科
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地球物理学 |
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基金
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地震预测研究所基本科研业务费专项
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:6110307
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