基于国民生产总值增长率微调制的国家能源年度消费总量Logistic修正模型研究
Research on Adjusted Logistic Model of National Energy Consumption with Slight Modulation by the Growth Ratio of GDP
查看参考文献21篇
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文摘
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本文在国家能源消费Logistic经典解析法模型的基础上,引入国民生产总值(GDP)增长率作为能源消费变化的影响因子之一,建立了基于国民生产总值增长率微调制的国家能源年度消费总量Logistic修正模型。通过美国能源消费历史数据实证分析和检验表明,该修正模型的拟合数据和预测数据与实际结果具有较好的一致性。 |
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其他语种文摘
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Energy resources are the base of nationaleconomic development and the essentials of human daily life. As the demands of all countries in the world on the energy resources increase,the competition for the energy resources are becoming more and more intensive. It is vital to collect and analysis the energy consumption data of the major countries around the world so that the government could make correct decision on the future national energy consumption using a scientific prediction model. Not similar to the time series commonly used,an adjusted Logistic model,which is based on the classical Logistic model of national energy annual consumption, is founded in this paper by introduceing a factor of the GDP growth ratio The adjusted Logistic model can be considered as a result of the classical logistic model modulated with the GDP growth ratio. Three different numerical models derived from the original adjusted Logistic model are the adjusted analytic model,dynamic differential model and static differential model. Then, the study and verification, which are based on the real statistic data of the energy annual consumption of USA from 1980 to 2010,shows that the fitted and prediction data are in good agreement with the empirical results. The simulation curve is fitted very well with the energy consumption fluctuation. According to the simulation and analysis results in this paper,a positive relevance between the national energy annual consumption and the national economics are shown directive in the analytic model. The relative prediction errors on 2011 and 2012 using the static differential model are only 0.63 % and 3.84%,respectively. |
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来源
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中国管理科学
,2017,25(6):32-38 【核心库】
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DOI
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10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.06.004
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关键词
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能源消费
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Logistic模型
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GDP
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微调制
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地址
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1.
中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院, 北京, 100083
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中国科学院国家空间科学中心, 北京, 100190
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1003-207X |
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学科
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社会科学总论 |
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:6061210
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