基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究
A Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model
查看参考文献16篇
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文摘
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[目的]评价降雨诱发浅层滑坡的失稳破坏概率,为相关研究提供理论依据。[方法]在引入并扩展了Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型的基础上,将Mein-Larson入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法有机结合,建立2种降雨情形(高强度短历时和低强度长历时)下降雨滑坡稳定性的确定性评价模型,然后再将蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与降雨滑坡的确定性评价模型结合,建立降雨滑坡稳定性的概率评价方法。[结果]提出了1种降雨诱发浅层滑坡失稳的概率评价方法。[结论]概率评价方法可以描述降雨滑坡发生及发展过程中存在的不确定性,可以计算不同降雨情形下,不同降雨时刻降雨诱发边坡的失稳破坏概率。该方法的评价结果更符合边坡实际情况。 |
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其他语种文摘
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[Objective]The objective of the study is to evaluate the instability probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall,and to provide theoretical basis for related research.[Methods]We combine Mein-Larson model with infinite slope stability models of saturated soil by introducing and developing the Mein-Larson infiltration model,and establish deterministic models for rain-induced landslides under short duration rainfall with high intensity and long duration rainfall with low intensity.Then we establish a probability analysis method of the slope instability by combining the deterministic models with Monte Carlo method. [Results]One kind of evaluation method for the failure probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall was proposed.[Conclusion]The probability method not only can describe the uncertainties in the process of occurrence and development of rain-induced landslides,but also can calculate the instability probability of rain-induced slope instability under the different rainfall time.The assessment results are in high agreement with the actual slope. |
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来源
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水土保持通报
,2017,37(1):219-223 【扩展库】
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DOI
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10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.039
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关键词
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Mein-Larson入渗模型
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降雨滑坡
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无限边坡稳定性分析方法
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失稳破坏概率
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地址
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1.
中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 四川, 成都, 610041
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重庆川东南地质工程勘察设计院, 重庆, 400038
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-288X |
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学科
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地质学 |
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基金
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中国科学院重点部署项目子课题
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国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:5969943
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