未来RCP4.5情景下非洲地区主要气候要素时空演变特征
Temporal-spatial Variation of Climate Factors in Africa under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario 4.5
查看参考文献19篇
|
文摘
|
气候变化影响及其适应受到广泛关注。大量研究表明,受气候变化影响所造成的增温和降水减少已影响到非洲地区的农业生产和环境。本文利用HadGEM2区域气候模式输出的RCP4.5情景数据,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对非洲大陆2010-2099年主要关键气候要素时空演变特征进行了预估,探讨了非洲大陆未来90年包括降水、辐射、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等主要气候要素的时空变化格局。结果表明:各气候要素在不同时段的变化均表现出明显的地域分异差异:① 相较于1970-1999年基准时段,未来3个时段(2020s、2050s、2080s)降水均增加,在2080s增至峰值,增加地区集中在20 °N附近的尼日尔、乍得、利比亚等国;最高增幅达4.5%;② 辐射增加区域分布在赤道地区和非洲大陆的南北两端,尤其是高海拔地区,如撒哈拉沙漠以北的阿特拉斯山脉附近,加丹加高原等地,最大增幅达0.04%;③ 未来90年非洲地区气温增加明显,包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温,气温增幅由2020s、2050s、2080s依次递增,到2080s达到最大值,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的最大增幅分别达到5、4.3和5.1 ℃。总体上,未来90年非洲大陆的气温较1970-1999年基准时段明显增多,但靠近海域的沿海地区增温较小,这是由于受到近海寒流的影响,起到了降温的作用。气温增幅过高也将不利于未来农业生产和地区安全。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
Impacts of climate change and adaptation are of key concern of scientific research. Vast research results indicated that agricultural production and environment in Africa have been affected a lot by increased temperature and decreased precipitation caused by climate change. This study used the output of regional climate model HadGEM2 under Representative Concentration Pathways Scenario 4.5 (RCP 4.5) to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of major climate factors including precipitation, solar radiation, annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Our results indicated that the variation of the five climate variables at different periods showed obvious regional differences. (1) Compared with the base period of 1970-1999, precipitation increased during the three future periods and reached peak value in 2080s. The area of precipitation increase is mainly located in the latitude of 20 degrees, such as Niger, Chad, Libya, etc. and the maximum increase is around 4.5%. (2) The area of increased solar radiation is mainly located in north and south ends of Africa continents, especially in high altitude area, i.e. Atlas mountain and Plus plateau and the maximum increase is 0.04%. (3) Over the next 90 years, the annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature are all increasing and reach the maximum value by 2080s, increasing 5 ℃,4.3 ℃,5.1 ℃ at 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, respectively. The temperature is significantly increased compared with the base period of 1970-1999, but increased less in the coastal area due to the cold current. The high increase of temperature might play negative role in agriculture production and regional security. |
|
来源
|
地球信息科学学报
,2016,18(11):1522-1528 【核心库】
|
|
DOI
|
10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01522
|
|
关键词
|
非洲
;
气候要素
;
时空演变
;
RCP4.5
|
|
地址
|
1.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室, 北京, 100101
2.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京, 100101
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1560-8999 |
|
基金
|
国家自然科学基金项目
;
国家重点研发计划项目
;
中国科学院青年创新促进会项目
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:5845079
|
参考文献 共
19
共1页
|
|
1.
IPCC.
Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis, contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change,2007:996
|
被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
IPCC.
Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation,2011
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
IPCC.
Climate Changes 2013:The Physical science basis,2013
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
Jones P G. The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055.
Global Environmental Change,2003,13(1):51-59
|
被引
23
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
Schlenker W. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.
Environmental Research Letters,2010,5:014010
|
被引
29
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
Muller C. Climate change risks for African agriculture.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2011,108(11):4313-4315
|
被引
9
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
Walker N J. Climate change impacts on agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa.
Agriculture Ecosystem Environment,2008,124:114-124
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
Dinar A. Climate change and agriculture in Africa:Impact assessment and adaptation strategies.
Earthscan/James & James,2008
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
Seo S N. A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agroecological zones in Africa.
Environment Resource Economy,2009,43:313-332
|
被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
Thornton P K. Adapting to climate change:agricultural system and household impacts in east Africa.
Agricultural System,2010,103:73-82
|
被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
Lobell D B. Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials.
Nature Climate Change,2011,1(1):42-45
|
被引
50
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
Hope K R. Climate change and poverty in Africa.
International Journal of Sustainable Development World Ecology,2009,16:451-461
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
Burke M B. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2009,106:20670-20674
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
詹世明. 应对气候变化:非洲的立场与关切.
西亚非洲,2009(10):42-49
|
被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
Riahi K. Greenhouse gases - integrated assessment.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2007,74(7):234
|
被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
Clarke L E.
Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of synthesis and assessment product 2.1 by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research,2007:154
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
Moss R.
Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies.Noordwijkerhout,2007:132
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
陈敏鹏. 代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战.
气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):436-442
|
被引
39
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
Van Vuuren D P.
Work plan for data exchange between the integrated assessment and climate modeling community in support of Phase-0 of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (representative community pathways),2008
|
被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问