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An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem: Part I—Model Error Estimation by Iteration

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Xue Haile 1 *   Shen Xueshun 1   Chou Jifan 2  
文摘 Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model (model error, denoted as ME). In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES-GFS) for July–August 2009 and January–February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) were both based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL (final) data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.
来源 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences ,2015,32(10):1329-1340 【核心库】
DOI 10.1007/s00376-015-4261-1
关键词 model error ; past data ; inverse problem ; error estimation ; model correction ; GRAPES-GFS
地址

1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing, 100081  

2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000

语种 英文
文献类型 研究性论文
ISSN 0256-1530
学科 大气科学(气象学)
基金 funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth ;  the Key Projects in the National Science ;  Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period ;  the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups
文献收藏号 CSCD:5488255

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1 Xue Haile An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem: Part II-Systematic Model Error Correction Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2015,32(11):1493-1503
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