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先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响
The Effect of Previous Emotion and Overconfidence on Risk Decision-Making Following Disaster Event

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王大伟 1   胡艺馨 2 *   时勘 3  
文摘 研究考察了先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响。结果发现:(1)先前情绪的主效应显著, 积极情绪比消极情绪的个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求;过度自信的主效应显著, 高过度自信比低过度自信个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求。(2)先前情绪和过度自信水平交互影响灾难事件后继风险决策。高过度自信者在积极情绪状态下比在消极情绪状态下更倾向于风险寻求; 消极情绪状态下过度自信水平不同的个体之间没有显著差异。
其他语种文摘 According to the cognitive neuroeconomic model, emotion and cognition are the important factors affecting risk decision-making following a disaster event. Previous emotion and overconfidence are the emotion and cognition factors influencing risk decision-making following disaster event. Do previous mood and overconfidence affect risk decision-making following a disaster event separately, or influence risk decision-making following disaster event jointly? The answer is still unclear in previous studies. Purposes: The study explored the effect of previous emotion and overconfidence on risk decision-making following a disaster event. Procedures & Methods: Firstly, 200 undergraduates were measured by using overconfidence questionnaire. 40 undergraduates were chosen as high overconfidence individuals because their overconfidence scores were higher than or equal to 35 points, and 40 undergraduates were chosen as low overconfidence individuals because their overconfidence scores were lower than or equal to 20 points. Thus, 80 subjects were obtained in the formal experiment. In the formal experiment, 20 high overconfidence and 20 low overconfident subjects were selected randomly to participate in the experiment of the positive emotional group, while the remaining 20 high overconfidence individuals and 20 low overconfidence subjects took part in the negative emotional group experiment. All formal experiment subjects had to complete the emotion self-rating scale and risk decision-making questionnaire following the disaster. Results & Conclusions: The results showed that (1) Positive and negative emotions video induced the emotions the experiment required. (2) The main effect of the previous emotion was significant, and risk decision-making individuals under positive emotion were more likely to seek risks than those under negative emotion. The research outcome further supported the affective generalization hypothesis (Johnson, & Tversky, 1983). Positive emotion led to a significant individual reduction of perceptions of risk events frequency, which made the prediction and estimation of decision makers more optimistic. However, negative emotion enhanced the perceived frequency of risk events, which made individuals have more pessimistic risk estimate. The main effect of overconfidence was significant and the risk decision-making of the individuals with high overconfidence was more likely to seek risks than those with low overconfidence. Positive emotions made overconfident individuals overestimate their ability of self decision or self-control results, and led them to err in predictive validity of different information sources, underestimate the probability of risk events and be more risk-seeking. The above results conformed to the hypothesis of the self-improvement theory, which states that the risk value depends on the expectations of self-improvement. And for individuals of low overconfident, positive emotions did not enhance their confidence level, but they tried to avoid risks and maintained the status and tended to risk aversion following the disaster event. (3) Previous emotion and overconfidence had an interaction effect. Individuals of high overconfidence in a positive emotional state were more likely to seek risk than those in the negative emotional state. There was no significant difference on overconfident level of individuals in the different negative emotional states. Innovation: The study expands the risk decision making theory, which also supports the cognitive neuroeconomic theory. Furthermore, both emotion and overconfidence jointly affect risk decision making following the disaster event. The study provides new evidence for the neural mechanism of risk decision-making following the disaster event.
来源 心理科学 ,2014,37(2):383-387 【核心库】
关键词 先前情绪 ; 过度自信 ; 灾难事件 ; 风险决策
地址

1. 山东师范大学心理学院, 济南, 250014  

2. 华东师范大学心理与认知科学学院, 上海, 200062  

3. 中国科学院大学管理学院, 北京, 100190

语种 中文
文献类型 研究性论文
ISSN 1671-6981
基金 国家教育部人文社会科学研究项目 ;  国家自然科学基金项目 ;  国家973计划 ;  中国博士后科学基金
文献收藏号 CSCD:5131674

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引证文献 2 篇

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