房屋价格与收入基本面关系研究
Relationship between house prices and income fundamental
查看参考文献24篇
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文摘
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利用面板平滑转换模型对我国35个大中城市的房屋价格和收入基本面的关系进行研究,结果发现:房屋价格与工资收入之间存在显著非线性关系;房屋价格对工资收入的线性弹性系数约为0.602,即:平均工资上涨1个单位,房屋价格上涨0.602个单位,而非线性部分则每个城市各不相同;深圳、北京、 上海、杭州等城市的房屋价格存在相对较大的非线性,与支撑房价的收入基本面背离较多,可能存在泡沫成分;在房屋改革初期我国房屋价格经历了一段房屋价格向收入基本面回归的过程,金融危机前房价出现了偏离收入基本面的现象,金融危机促进房屋价格向收入基本面靠近,但是金融危机后的救市措施和宽松的货币环境等因素再度导致房价偏离收入基本面. |
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其他语种文摘
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The relationship between the house price and the income fundamental of 35 cities is investigated using panel smooth transition model. The conclusions include: There exists significant nonlinearity between house prices and wages; The linear parameter is about 0.602 which means if the wages increase one unit, the house price will rise by 0.602 unit; The nonlinear parameters of 35 cities differ from each other; Of all the 35 cities, the nonlinear parameters of Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou are bigger which implies that the house price of these cities may deviate from their income fundamentals; After the housing system reform of China, the house price of 35 cities gradually established a relationship with their income fundamentals; The house price of 35 cities deviated from their fundamental before the global financial crisis in 2008 but the deviation was eliminated by the subsequent crisis; The easing monetary policy to deal with the financial crisis caused the house price depart from its income fundamental again. |
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来源
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系统工程理论与实践
,2013,33(12):3120-3126 【核心库】
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关键词
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房屋价格
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收入基本面
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面板平滑转换模型
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弹性系数
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资产泡沫
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地址
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1.
中国科学院大学管理学院, 北京, 100190
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北京邮电大学经济管理学院, 北京, 100027
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-6788 |
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学科
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社会科学总论 |
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:5023991
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