中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长关系研究
Analysis on Relationship between Carbon Emissions from Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China
查看参考文献14篇
|
文摘
|
化石能源过度消费导致的气候变化问题引发了全世界对经济发展模式的关注,论文运用计量经济学方法研究了中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长的关系,测算了中国1953—2010年化石能源消费引起的碳排放总量,建立了碳排放总量和国内生产总值的时序计量经济模型, 通过协整检验、误差修正模型、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数、因果关系检验,分析了二者之间的长短期关系,结果表明:1953—2010年,我国的化石能源消费碳排放总量和国内生产总值之间存在长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制,通过短期调节,可以自动实现二者之间的长期均衡。当期GDP对碳排放总量的当期波动有显著性影响,每增加1%的GDP便会增加0.719% 的碳排放量,上期误差对碳排放总量的当期波动调整幅度较大,单位调整比例为-0.102。利用脉冲响应函数波形图对碳排放量与经济增长之间的影响及响应进行了20期的详细刻画,揭示了二者之间复杂的短期动态关系。1953—2010年,存在从碳排放总量到GDP的单向Granger因果关系,碳排放是经济增长的Granger原因,而经济增长不是碳排放的Granger原因,说明从过去58 a的整体状况来看,高碳排放推动了经济增长,而经济增长并未导致明显的碳排放增加。研究结果将对中国制定节能减排和碳减排政策提供依据和支撑。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
Climate change caused by excessive fossil energy consumption has drawn attention of the researchers around the world to focus on economic development pattern. Econometric method is used to study relationship between carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption and economic growth in China in the paper. First, we estimate carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption in 1953-2010 in China. Second, we establish an econometric model of relationship between carbon emissions and Gross Domestic Product(GDP). Finally, we analyze relationships between two variables through cointegration test, ECM model, impulse response function based on VAR model and Granger causality test. The results show that there is cointegration relation of long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism between carbon emissions from fossil energy and GDP during 1953 -2010 in China. Long-term equilibrium will automatically be achieved through short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism. Current GDP has a significant effect on carbon emissions. Every 1% increase of GDP leads to O. 719% increase of carbon emissions. Wide adjustment range of previous error to current carbon emissions attains -0. 102. Impulse response function waveform chart between carbon emissions and economic growth depict influence and response in 20 stages, revealing complex dynamic short-term relationship. Unidirectional Granger causalities from carbon emissions to GDP are as follows. Carbon emissions are the Granger cause for economic growth but economic growth is not the Granger cause for carbon emissions. High carbon emissions have promoted economic growth while economic growth hasn't resulted in significant carbon emissions increase in the past 58 years. The results will provide basis and support for policy making on energy saving and emission reduction and carbon emissions reduction in China. |
|
来源
|
自然资源学报
,2013,28(3):381-390 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
化石能源
;
碳排放
;
协整检验
;
Granger因果关系检验
|
|
地址
|
1.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
2.
国务院发展研究中心, 北京, 100010
3.
全国市长研修学院, 北京, 100029
4.
北京林业大学经济管理学院, 北京, 100083
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1000-3037 |
|
学科
|
社会科学总论;社会与环境 |
|
基金
|
国家发改委应对气候变化司2011年度项目“中国绿色经济发展思路研究”
;
国家发改委委托课题“河南省济源市低碳发展战略研究”
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:4801828
|
参考文献 共
14
共1页
|
|
1.
Kraft J. On the relationship between energy and GNP.
Journal of Energy and Development,1978(3):401-403
|
被引
34
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
Soytas U. Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States.
Ecological Economics,2007,62(3/4):482-489
|
被引
50
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
牛叔文. 能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析------基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究.
中国软科学,2010(5):12-19
|
被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
许广月.
中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系的研究,2010
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
宋春燕. 我国人均碳排放量与经济增长协整分析.
中国物价,2011(5):64-67
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
Granger C W J. Causality, cointegration, and control.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1988,12(2/3):551-559
|
被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
李子奈.
计量经济学,2010:261-305
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
Granger C W J. Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1980,2:329-352
|
被引
30
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
Granger C W J. Some recent development in a concept of causality.
Journal of Econometrics,1988,39(1/2):199-211
|
被引
35
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
徐国泉. 中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004.
中国人口. 资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161
|
被引
222
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
彭佳雯. 中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究.
资源科学,2011,33(4):626-633
|
被引
68
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
蒋金荷. 中国碳排放量测算及影响因素分析.
资源科学,2011,33(4):597-604
|
被引
47
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
史红亮. 基于脉冲响应函数的中国钢铁产业能源效率及其影响因素的动态分析.
资源科学,2011,33(5):814-822
|
被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
韩智勇. 中国能源消费与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析.
系统工程,2004(12):17-21
|
被引
57
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问