中国台风强度等级与可能灾害损失标准研究
A study on the relationship between typhoon intensity grade and disaster loss in China
查看参考文献37篇
|
文摘
|
台风灾害给中国沿海地区造成了严重损失,进行台风风险评估将为台风灾害有效规避提供科学依据,探讨台风强度等级和灾害损失之间的关系是台风风险定量评估的基础。利用1954-2008年间登陆中国东南沿海的174场成灾台风路径数据和对应的灾情记录数据,对台风强度等级和承灾体(农作物、人口、房屋和社会经济)的8项指标的损失数量关系进行分析,并对台风强度等级与各项损失率指标之间的关系进行拟合,得出各项灾损指标的损失率曲线。基于台风强度等级划分标准和损失率曲线,建立了适合于我国的四个强度等级的台风灾害损失标准划分方案:微度、轻度、中度和重度,对应的损失率用承灾体的社会经济指标来表征。研究表明:当台风强度等级达到第4等级时,灾害造成的损失率均有较大幅度的增加。本文构建的台风灾害损失标准可为进一步定量评估承灾体脆弱性及损失风险提供依据和参考。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
Typhoon disasters cause great losses in coastal regions of China, and typhoon disaster risk assessment can provide scientific basis for disaster loss prevention. It is a basic work to assess its risk quantitatively in discussion on the relationship between typhoon intensity grade and disaster loss. In this paper, 174 typhoon paths data and disaster situation data from 1954 to 2008, and intensity grade information for each typhoon event from track dataset are used to analyze the relationship between typhoon intensity grade and 8 loss indices. The typhoon intensity grade is characterized by average wind speed. The loss indices include crop afflicted area, crop failure area, afflicted population, mortality, injuried, settlement population, collapsed buildings, and direct economic loss, which belong to four kinds of hazard resilient society (crops, population, house and economy). Based on typhoon wind theory, the affected range of each typhoon is extracted by doing buffer in spatial analysis module on ArcGIS9.3. According to the ranges, the 8 indices for loss rates could be calculated. The relationship between typhoon intensity grade and disaster loss rates are fitted by statistical method, and the loss rate curves are obtained subsequently. The loss rate curves are showed in exponential forms. Based on the typhoon intensity grade division standard and loss rate curves, the scheme of typhoon disaster loss criteria is established, which could be divided into four grades: slight, light, medium and severe. In the criteria, each grade could be characterized by 8 loss indices. The results indicate that loss rates are exponentially increasing with typhoon intensity grade, namely, the higher the intensity grade, the larger the amount of losses. When the intensity grade is 4, the loss rates are increasing sharply. Crops are the most affected in four kinds of hazard resilient society when typhoons landing, and in the severe case, 63.25% of crops area suffers from typhoon disaster. However, mortality rate, injury rate, collapsed buildings rate and direct economic loss rate are relatively low, which indicate that China has the capacity of calamity reduction to avoid large losses. The typhoon disaster loss rate criteria established in this paper could be suitable in China and useful in quantitative vulnerability and risk assessment in further studies. |
|
来源
|
地理研究
,2013,32(2):266-274 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
台风
;
强度等级
;
灾害损失
;
损失标准
|
|
地址
|
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1000-0585 |
|
学科
|
大气科学(气象学) |
|
基金
|
国家自然科学基金项目
;
国家科技支撑计划项目
;
中国科学院知识创新工程项目
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:4773399
|
参考文献 共
37
共2页
|
|
1.
周俊华. 西北太平洋热带气旋风险分析.
自然灾害学报,2004,13(3):146-151
|
被引
27
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
黄蕙.
基于情景的台风灾害风险评估研究. 硕士学位论文,2009
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
梁必骐. 中国沿海的台风灾害及其对经济发展的影响.
论沿海地区减灾与发展--全国沿海地区减灾与发展研讨会论文集,1991:232-235
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
王军. 基于多源遥感影像的台风灾情动态评估——研究进展.
自然灾害学报,2008,17(3):22-28
|
被引
10
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
王静爱. 中国沿海自然灾害及减灾对策.
北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,1995,31(3):104-109
|
被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
梁必骐. 中国台风灾害及其影响的研究.
自然灾害学报,1995,4(1):84-91
|
被引
43
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
欧进萍. 中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析.
自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):9-17
|
被引
41
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
陈香. 2005年福建省台风灾害时空格局与危险性评价.
台湾海峡,2008,27(2):250-255
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
孙伟. 海南岛台风灾害危险性评价研究.
气象研究与应用,2008,29(4):7-9
|
被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
娄伟平. 基于主成分神经网络的台风灾害经济损失评估.
地理研究,2009,28(5):1243-1254
|
被引
20
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
刘少军. 可拓方法在台风灾害危险性评估中的应用.
云南地理环境研究,2010,22(4):100-104
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
曾令峰. 广西沿海台风灾害风险评估初探.
灾害学,1996,11(1):43-47
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
丁燕. 台风灾害的模糊风险评估模型.
自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):34-43
|
被引
69
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
陈香. 福建省台风灾害风险评估与区划.
生态学杂志,2007,26(6):961-966
|
被引
37
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
陈香. 福建台风灾害风险分布的初步估计.
自然灾害学报,2007,16(3):18-23
|
被引
9
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
孟菲.
上海成灾台风的气象特征及灾害风险评估. 硕士学位论文,2008
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
杨慧娟. 我国沿海地区近54a台风灾害风险特征分析.
气象科学,2007,27(4):413-418
|
被引
36
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
全国减灾救灾标准化技术委员会.
综合灾害风险分类标准,2010
|
被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
刘毅. 自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研----以山西省地震灾害风险为例.
地理研究,2011,30(2):195-208
|
被引
34
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
丁燕.
台风灾害的模糊风险评估模型. 硕士学位论文,2002
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问