海洋环境要素计算不确定性分析
Uncertainty analysis of marine environment elements calculation
查看参考文献18篇
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文摘
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海洋环境要素(如风、浪、流、周期等)极值参数的准确推算在海洋工程设计中具有重要意义。由于极值计算时存在的不确定性因素,导致不同模式、样本的组合会导致极值计算结果产生明显差异。使用南海长期波浪资料,对环境要素计算时存在的统计模型不确定性、取样不确定性和参数求解方法的不确定性等进行了系统的研究和比较,最终对极值理论总体不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,采用复合极值分布并扩大样本数量的方法,可有效减小极值预测的不确定性及海洋结构物设计阶段的风险。 |
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其他语种文摘
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The marine environmental extreme value parameters such as wind speed,current speed,wave height and wave period play an important role in marine engineering design. Because of the uncertainty existing in the parameter calculation,there is a significant difference in the prediction. Based on the observed data in South China Sea,the uncertainties existing in extreme theory,sampling method,samples interval and statistics parameters solving method are discussed in this paper. It is shown that the adoption of the com- pound extreme value distribution with more samplings can significantly reduce uncertainty factors in extreme value prediction and the risk of the marine constructions in the design stage. |
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来源
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海洋工程
,2012,30(4):109-117 【扩展库】
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关键词
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极值模型
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设计波高
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不确定性
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取样方法
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概率预测
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地址
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中海油研究总院, 北京, 100027
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语种
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中文 |
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ISSN
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1005-9865 |
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学科
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水利工程 |
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基金
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国家863计划
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:4705584
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