帮助 关于我们

返回检索结果

Long-term trends of precipitation in the North China Plain

查看参考文献37篇

Fan Lan 1   Lu Changhe 1   Yang Biao 2   Chen Zhao 1  
文摘 The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the Mann- Kendall (M-K) test and Sen's slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had anapparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.
来源 Journal of Geographical Sciences ,2012,22(6):989-1001 【核心库】
DOI 10.1007/s11442-012-0978-2
关键词 precipitation ; trend ; changing rate ; North China Plain
地址

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101  

2. China Academy of Space Technology, Beijing, 100094

语种 英文
ISSN 1009-637X
学科 大气科学(气象学)
基金 国家973计划 ;  国家自然科学基金
文献收藏号 CSCD:4695628

参考文献 共 37 共2页

1.  Alexandersson H. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology,1986,6(6):661-675 被引 69 次    
2.  Beran R. On nonparametric estimation of intercept and slope distributions in random coefficient regression. Annals of Statistics,1996,24(6):2569-2592 被引 1 次    
3.  Biggs E M. A characterisation of climate variability and trends in hydrological extremes in the Severn Uplands. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(11):1634-1652 被引 1 次    
4.  Costa A C. Homogenization of climate data: Review and new perspectives using geostatistics. Mathematical Geosciences,2009,41(3):291-305 被引 7 次    
5.  Donald H B. Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology,2002,55:107-122 被引 135 次    
6.  Gilbert R O. Statistical methods for environmental monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold,1987 被引 1 次    
7.  Gonz A. Quality control and homogeneity of precipitation data in the southwest of Europe. Journal of Climate,2001,14(5):964-978 被引 6 次    
8.  Kendall M G. Rank Correlation Measures,1975 被引 57 次    
9.  Khaliq M N. On the critical values of the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT). International Journal of Climatology,2007,27(5):681-687 被引 6 次    
10.  Lin Yuping. Trends of precipitation of different intensity in China. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, (in Chinese),2009,45(6):18-25 被引 1 次    
11.  Liu B H. Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960-2000. Journal of Geophysical Research,2005,110:D08103 被引 17 次    
12.  Liu Haiwen. The interdecadal variability of summer precipitation over North China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, (in Chinese),2011(2):129-137 被引 1 次    
13.  Liu Xiaoning. The homogeneity test on mean annual wind speed over China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, (in Chinese),2000,11(1):27-34 被引 3 次    
14.  Liu Xiaoning. An inhomogeheity test study of annual precipitation series. Meteorological Monthly, (in Chinese),1995,21(8):3-6 被引 3 次    
15.  Mann H B. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometric,1945,13:245-259 被引 753 次    
16.  Partal T. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes,2006,20(9):2011-2026 被引 25 次    
17.  Qian W. Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,90(3/4):193-207 被引 30 次    
18.  Salmi T. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates-the EXCEL template application 499 MAKESENS. Finnish Meteorological Institute Publications on Air Quality No.31 (Report code FMI-AQ-31),2002:35 被引 1 次    
19.  Sen P K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63:1379-1389 被引 426 次    
20.  Sicard P. Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period. Science of the Total Environment,2010,408:1943-1950 被引 8 次    
引证文献 10 篇

1 董旭光 山东省近50年来降水事件变化特征 地理学报,2014,69(5):661-671
被引 44 次

2 Li Wangjun Aridity trend and response to vegetation restoration in the loess hilly region of northern Shaanxi Province Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(3):289-300
被引 4 次

显示所有10篇文献

论文科学数据集
PlumX Metrics
相关文献

 作者相关
 关键词相关
 参考文献相关

版权所有 ©2008 中国科学院文献情报中心 制作维护：中国科学院文献情报中心
地址：北京中关村北四环西路33号 邮政编码：100190 联系电话：(010)82627496 E-mail:cscd@mail.las.ac.cn 京ICP备05002861号-4 | 京公网安备11010802043238号