用文字概率衡量不确定性:特征和问题
Using Verbal Probability to Measure Uncertainty:Features and Problems
查看参考文献48篇
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文摘
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文字概率是衡量不确定性的方式之一,即人们使用诸如"也许"、"未必"的词汇来描述特定事件发生的可能性。文字概率不同于数字概率,主要体现在文字概率的模糊性、非概率运算性和语义特性上。这使得相对于数字概率,用文字概率衡量不确定性既有优势也有问题,进而对人们的不确定信息沟通和风险决策造成影响。虽然文字概率与数字概率存在特征上的差异并且人们在日常交流中偏爱文字概率,但是大部分风险领域的研究却仅局限于数字概率,今后有必要研究使用文字概率测量的风险决策。在已有文字概率特征研究的基础上,还可以进一步探究其不同于数字概率的其它特征(文字/数字概率与双系统模型的联系、文字概率的跨文化差异等)及其对风险决策的影响。 |
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其他语种文摘
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Verbal probability is one of the ways of measuring uncertainty. People use verbal probability, such as "uncertain" and "possible", to describe the chance that an event will happen. Verbal probability differs from numerical probability, particularly in features of vagueness, non-probabilistic operation, and semantic feature. Some remarkable phenomena and problems arise and the quality of judgment and decision making suffer in one way or another when people use verbal probability, rather than numerical probability, to measure uncertainty. The role of verbal probability in risk decision making is understudied in spite of the fact that people often use verbal probability to communicate uncertainty in their daily lives and of the great differences between verbal probability and numerical probability. Suggestions are made for future work to focus on risk decision making using verbal probability and on other potential features (e.g., the relationship between verbal/numerical probability and the dual system model, cross-cultural differences in verbal probability) and their effects on risky choices, in order to further improve our understanding of the mechanism of risk decision making. |
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来源
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心理科学进展
,2012,20(5):651-661 【核心库】
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关键词
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文字概率
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数字概率
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模糊性
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非概率运算性
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语义特性
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地址
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中国科学院心理研究所, 中国科学院行为科学重点实验室, 北京, 100101
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1671-3710 |
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学科
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社会科学总论 |
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基金
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国家973计划
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国家自然科学基金面上项目
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中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目
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北京市重点学科建设项目
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:4548824
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48
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