复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展
Complex System Theory and Agent-based Modeling: Progresses in Land Change Science
查看参考文献104篇
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文摘
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基于复杂系统理论与Agent模型,分别从理论与方法的角度梳理并总结了当前土地变化科学的研究进展。复杂系统理论为研究土地变化所处的"耦合的人类—自然系统"及其复杂性问题提供理论支撑;而基于Agent的模拟作为研究复杂系统的重要工具,为传统土地变化模拟提供新的方法支持。当前,ABMs与土地变化模型相结合(ABM/LUCC),无论是模型构建还是模型应用均取得了显著进展。然而,其也存在诸多问题,尤其是理论与应用脱节,使很多建模者容易陷入"为建模而建模"的误区。此外,现有的ABM模型设计较为随意,模型间差异太大,不利于跨区域比较研究的开展。因此,虽然ABM是认识复杂系统的有效方法,但是建模之前离不开对系统复杂性的深入研究;基于Agent的土地变化模拟的意义在于充分表达"人类—自然"系统的综合复杂关系,从而合理的预测土地变化(结构与功能)的动态过程,解释并评价土地变化的可能影响。 |
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其他语种文摘
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Based on complex system theory and agent-based models(ABMs),the paper summarizes recent progresses in land change science from the perspective of theory and methodology respectively.Complex system theory is the theoretical basis for carrying out researches on the complex land change issues in the"coupled human and natural systems"; while ABMs,one of the key tools for complex system studies,introduces innovating perspective to traditional land change modeling.The integration of ABMs and land use/cover change models(ABM/LUCC)has achieved several important breakthroughs recently; however,some of the crucial issues remain unsolved,such as the problem of"theory divorced from practice"and the deficiency in cross-site comparison studies.As for current problems, the authors finally have discussion and draw a conclusion that firstly,ABMs should be constructed by the support of complex system theory.Moreover,the natural ABM/LUCC are supposed to explore the comprehensive human-natural interactions in land systems,to predict land system dynamics,and to analyze the consequences of land system change. |
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来源
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地理学报
,2011,66(11):1518-1530 【核心库】
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关键词
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Agent模型
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人类—自然系统
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土地利用/土地覆盖
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土地变化科学
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土地系统
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地址
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中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所, 农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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0375-5444 |
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学科
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系统科学;自然地理学 |
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基金
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国家973计划
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国家自然科学基金项目
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国家科技部国际合作项目
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:4365557
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