区域尺度水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系----以京津唐地区为例
Framework for Water Scarcity Assessment and Solution at Regional Scales: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Region
查看参考文献40篇
|
文摘
|
水资源短缺风险评估是当今风险研究中的热点问题之一. 然而, 区域内部差异性使得区域尺度水资源短缺风险相比城市尺度更为复杂. 本文构建了由水资源供给保障率、水资源保障可靠性、水资源利用率和水资源利用效率4项指标构成的区域尺度水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系, 给出了定量计算方法, 并在京津唐地区进行了实例研究. 结果表明, 2020年北京、天津、承德、张家口为"低风险", 秦皇岛为"中风险", 唐山、廊坊为"高风险". 京津唐地区水资源短缺风险防范对策应以节约用水、加强非常规水源利用为主, 并加强区域内部调节, 适度增加唐山等地的分水量. 在廊坊市, 应考虑降低复种指数减少农业用水需求. 区域水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系能够直观反映区域水资源风险和规避风险的能力, 揭示区域水资源短缺问题的特征, 从而能更好地服务于水资源管理决策 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
Water scarcity risk assessment is a research hotspot worldwide. Regional scale risk assessment is more complex than that at a city scale because of the internal differences. A water scarcity risk assessment and decision-making system as established at a regional level in this article, which constituted by four indexes,i.e.the demand satisfaction index, the demand reliability index, the rate of water resources utilization, and water-use efficiency. A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region was conducted. The results show that the water scarcity risk level of Beijing, Tianjin, Chengde and Zhangjiakou is lower in 2020, better than the present situations. The risk level of Qinhuangdao is moderate, and that of Tangshan and Langfang is high. Saving water and unconventional water use should be wildely adopted in this region. Besides, water supply to Tangshan should be increased to reduce the water scarcity risk. In Langfang, agricultural water demand should be decreased by reducing the multiple cropping indexes. This system can directly reflect the probability of water scarcity and the capacity to avoid risks. Reasonable water resource management decision-making can be made based on this study because the characteristics of regional water scarcity are clearly revealed by the four indexes |
|
来源
|
地理科学进展
,2010,29(9):1041-1048 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
水资源短缺
;
风险评估
;
风险决策
;
京津唐地区
|
|
地址
|
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1007-6301 |
|
学科
|
自然地理学 |
|
基金
|
国家科技支撑计划项目
;
欧盟项目
;
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:3986042
|
参考文献 共
40
共2页
|
|
1.
WHO.
Water Sanitation and Health
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
Falkenmark M. Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches:aspects of vulnerability in semi-arid development.
Natural Resources Forum,1989,13(4):258-267
|
被引
21
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
Ohlsson L.
Water and Social Resource Scarcity,1998
|
被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
Cosgrove W J.
World Water Vision: Making Water Everybody's Business,2000
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
Sullivan C. Calculating a water poverty index.
World Development,2002,30(7):1195-1211
|
被引
39
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
Hashimoto T. Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation.
Water Resources Research,1982,18(1):14-20
|
被引
56
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
Jinno K. Risk assessment of a water supply system during drought.
Water Resources Development,1995,11(2):185-204
|
被引
8
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
Xu Z X. Performance risk analysis for Fukuoka water supply system.
Water Resources Management,1998,12(1):13-30
|
被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
Kawamura A. Development of Integrated Decision Support System for the Water Supply System in Fukuoka, Japan.
Water 99 Joint Congress.25th Hydrology&Water Resources Symposium,2nd International Conference on Water Resources&Environment Research;Barton,ACT: Institution of Engineers, Australia,1999:341-347
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
Merabtene T. Risk assessment for optimal drought management of an integrated water resources system using a genetic algorithm.
Hydrological Processes,2002,16(11):2189-2208
|
被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
Jones R N. Climate change and the risk to long-term water supply in the Murray-Darling Basin.
Australian Water Association. Proceeding of 2001 A Water Odyssey,2001
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
Jones R N. Assessing the risk of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Macquarie River Catchment.
Integrating Models for Natural Resources Management across Disciplines, issues and scales(Part 2). Modsim 2001 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Canberra,2001:673-678
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
Jones R N. Climate change and water resources in an arid continent: Managing uncertainty and risk in Australia.
Climatic Change-Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management,2002:465-501
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
Fowler H J. Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system.
Water Resources Research,2003,39(8):1222-1232
|
被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
Jones R.
Climate change and Australian water resources: First risk assessment and gap analysis,2007
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
Iglesias A. Drought and water scarcity:current and future vulnerability and risk.
Water policy in Spain, resources for the future,2006
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
Iglesias A. Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean.
Water Resources Management,2007,21(5):775-788
|
被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
阮本清. 水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价.
水利学报,2005,36(8):906-912
|
被引
41
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
韩宇平. 水资源短缺风险经济损失评估研究.
水利学报,2007,38(10):1253-1257
|
被引
14
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
韩宇平. 区域水资源短缺风险调控研究.
河北工业大学学报,2007,24(4):81-84
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问