全球气候变暖争议中的核心问题
Key Issues on Debating about the Global Warming
查看参考文献94篇
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文摘
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综合分析了全球气候变暖争议中的3个核心问题：①全球变暖停滞了吗？回答是不一定．虽然根据HadCRUT3序列显示1999—2008年温度增量很小，但是这10年仍是过去30年中最暖的10年。而根据NASA GISS序列，则同期温度增量仍达到0.19℃/10a。目前全球地表气温在一个较暖平台上振荡，不能忽视自然气候变率。②气候变暖完全是由人类活动造成的吗？回答是否定的。虽然温室效应加剧可能是全球变暖的主要原因。但是，ENSO、太阳活动、火山活动、热盐环流等对全球变暖也有影响，在年代际及年际尺度上其影响甚至有时可能超过人类活动的作用。其中，太阳活动对气候变化的影响是需要重点考虑的因素。③气候变暖的影响有十分明显的迹象吗？回答是肯定的。近几年冰雪圈融化的速率及海平面上升的速率均超过了2007年IPCC第四次评估报 告的估计，因此对未来SL上升的预估值也增加了。 |
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其他语种文摘
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Key issues on debating about global warming are reviewed: ①Does the global warming pause? The answer is not sure. The HadCRUT3 data show that the temperature during 1999-2008 increased only a little (0. 07℃/lOa), but this decade is still the most warmest one among the last 30 years. However, the data from NASA GISS indicate that the temperature increased in the same period is higher (0. 19℃/10a). Thus, global surface temperature in recent years oscillates on a warm level. However, natural variability needs to be taken into consideration. ②Does the global warming be caused fully by anthropogenic factors? The answer is no. ENSO, solar activity, volcanism, and thermohaline circulation can also exert impact in some extent on climate change, though the morden global warming may be mostly attributed to the increasing of greenhouse effect. However, the natural factors may sometimes overwhelm the anthropogenic effect in the interannual to interdecadal time scale. Specially, the solar activity factor should be given more attention. ③Does the impact of global warming become more evident recently? The answer is yes. New observational datas indicate that the melting speed of glaciers and ice caps and rising speed of sea level in recent years have exceeded the related projections by IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Accordingly, the updated projection of the future sea level also increases. |
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来源
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地球科学进展
,2010,25(6):656-665 【核心库】
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关键词
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全球
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气候
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变暖
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地址
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1.
北京大学物理学院大气科学系, 北京, 100871
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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1001-8166 |
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学科
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地球物理学;环境科学基础理论 |
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基金
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中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目
;
财政部公益类行业专项项目“东亚对流层温度的年代际和年际变率及其对短期气候预测的影响”
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科技部重大科技支撑项目“全球变化人文因素研究”
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:3887570
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