中国城市交通堵塞机率的计算及其政策启示
The Computation of Urban Transportation Congestion Probability and Its Implications for Solving Urban Transportation Problems in China
查看参考文献20篇
|
文摘
|
运用数学方法,计算了城市交通堵塞的机率,量化分析了边际车辆产生的交通拥挤外部性,并进一步探讨了此研究对解决我国城市交通问题的启示.结果显示:如果城市车辆和道路同步增长,每条道路上交通堵塞的平均机率呈加速增长的态势,这个增长过程可以用抛物线口朝上的右支来刻画;并且,随着城市车辆规模的增加,边际车辆的增加造成的交通堵塞的增量呈直线上升.在现实中,城市道路增长速度远跟不上城市车辆的增长速度,这极大地增加了交通堵塞的机率.中国城市规模巨大,交通拥挤外部性明显;大城市交通用地比例低(约占城市用地的10%),城市有效交通用地比例更低,这些都是造成我国大城市交通拥挤的重要因素.针对上述研究结果,本文提出了降低我国城市交通堵塞机率的一些措施,其中,发展卫星城、建立多中心的城市空间(土地利用)格局是降低城市交通堵塞机率的最为关键的措施. |
|
其他语种文摘
|
Using the mathematics method, this article calculated the urban transportation conges-tion probability, and analyzed negative externality of traffic congestion caused by the increasing vehicle, and further discussed the implications resulted from this study for solving urban trans-portation problems in China. The results show that: if urban vehicles and roads synchronously in-crease, on each road the traffic jam average probability exhibits the trend of the accelerating growth, which can be pictured by the parabola; and along with the size of urban vehicles increase, the traffic jam linearly increases caused by the increase of margin vehicles. In the reality, the rate of urban road increase is lower than that of urban vehicles, and much lower than that of the traffic jam probability. In China, city size is huge, so the traffic congestion externality is obvious. In the municipal areas, the share of transportation land of the whole urban land is very low (around 10%), and the share of urban effective transportation land are smaller. These are important factors affecting urban transportation congestion. In view of the above findings, this article provides some measures for reducing urban transportation jam probability, among which to develop some satellite towns or to establish multi-central land use pattern are essential. |
|
来源
|
地理科学进展
,2010,29(1):110-116 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
交通堵塞
;
机率
;
启示
;
中国
|
|
地址
|
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1007-6301 |
|
学科
|
社会科学总论 |
|
基金
|
国家自然科学基金项目
;
国家科技支撑计划项目
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:3817681
|
参考文献 共
20
共1页
|
|
1.
O'Sullivan A.
Urban economics,2002:546-608
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
Pucher J. Urban transport crisis in India.
TRANSPORT POLICY,2005,12:185-198
|
被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
Tadaki S. Analysis of congested flow at the upper stream of a tunnel.
PHYSICA A,2002,315:156-162
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
Chen H. Environmental challenges of post-reform housing development in Beijing.
Habital International,2005,29:571-589
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
Vaseoncellos E A de. Urban change,mobility and transport in Sao Paulo:three decades,three cities.
TRANSPORT POLICY,2005,12:91-104
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
Fujita M.
Urban economic theory:land use and city size,1989:226-270
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
Sire L L. Integrating land use and transport planning to reduce work-related travel:a case study of Tampines Regional Centre in Singapore.
Habital International,2001,25:399-414
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
北京市统计局.
北京市统计年鉴,2006:75
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
国家统计局.
国际统计年鉴,2007:123-128
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
Tan M. Urban land expansion and arable land loss of the major cities in China in the 1990s.
Science in China. Series D, Earth Sciences (in English),2005,48:1492-1500
|
被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
刘大庆.
2004年香港经济年鉴,2005:347
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
Lam W H K. Why standard modeling and evaluation procedures are inadequate for assessing traffic congestion measures.
TRANSPORT POLICY,1997,4:217-223
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
中国交通年鉴编委会.
中国交通年鉴,2006:663-657
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
Chan E H W. Density control and the quality of living space:a case study of private housing development in Hong Kong.
Habitat International,2002,26:159-175
|
被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
Lau S S Y. Multiple and intensive land use:case studies in Hong Kong.
Habitat International,2005,29:527-546
|
被引
18
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
国家统计局城市社会经济调查总队.
20014年中国城市发展报告,2005:3-6
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
郝寿义(译).
区域和城市经济学手册:城市经济学,2003:200-276
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
Olszewski P. Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic in Singapore.
Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2005,39:755-772
|
被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
闫晓虹.
调查报告显示中国城市交通不畅已成为普遍现象
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
.
Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of General Affairs,Statistic Division Management and Coordination Section.Tokyo Statistical Yearbook,2006
|
被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问