|
文摘
|
实证研究表明，国际油价变动特点可以用AR（1）模型描述。对油价和主要影响因素的长短期关系的检验表明，OPEC产量、OECD田家消费需求等是影响石油价格的长期因素，弹性系数分别是-8．845％、7．19％，短期影响很小；中国石油消费需求短期对油价产生了正向影响，弹性为3．99％。国际油价对长期均衡的偏离大约需要1．63-1．88个季度得到修正。实证结果说明，国际油价的长期走势仍然是由最根本的供求关系等经济因素决定的，短期油价变动主要源于突发性非经济因素。AR（1）模型和由OPEC产量、OECD国家消费需求、OECD库存等构成的因果关系模型相比，后者对于预测国际油价有更好的效果。中国国内油价对田际油价存在滞后效应，但出口价格已与国际油价同步。中国基本石油战略的构建应该建立在对长期经济因素的分析和预测之上，并建立现代石油市场体系，改革石油定价机制。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
Precise insight into the real reasons that account for the bring proper actions in this changeful changes of international oil price can era. AR （1） model is suitable in depicting the characteristic of international oil price moving. The cointegration analysis shows that the OPEC output and the OECD consumption demands are the long-term factors influencing the international oil price with the elasticity of about - 8.845% and 7.19%, respectively. But they have almost no influence in the short run according to the results of the error correction model. This research also shows that China＇s consumption demand influences the international oil price in the short-term with an elasticity of about 3.99%; and the international oil price needs about 1.63 -1.88 quarters to revise the deviation from the long-term balance. The results of these empirical tests present that long-term fluctuations of international oil price are generally determined by economic factors such as the output of OPEC, the demands and stocks of OECD nations. Short-term oil price fluctuations mainly derive from non-economic factors such as political affairs, speculations in the international oil futures markets and other emergent affairs. Compared with AR （1） model, causality model which contains the variables of the output of OPEC, the demands and stocks of OECD nations and so on gives more precise forecast of the future oil price. China＇s domestic crude oil price and petroleum prices are all about one month lag compared with that of the international markets because of Chinese present pricing mechanism. While Granger causality test shows that China＇s export oil price moves simultaneously with the international oil price. So China＇s basic oil strategies such as oil stock strategy, petroleum finance strategy should be based on the analysis and the forecast of the international long-term economic factors which influence the oil price essentially. Chinese domestic pricing mechanism should also be reformed and a modem petroleum market system should be established. |
|
来源
|
资源科学
,2007,29(1):178-183 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
国际油价
;
定量分析
;
长短期影响因素
;
国内油价
;
建议
|
|
地址
|
1.
同济大学金融衍生品研究所, 上海, 200092
2.
上海交通大学, 上海, 200030
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1007-7588 |
|
学科
|
社会科学总论 |
|
基金
|
国家软科学研究计划项目
;
上海市社会科学基金
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:2739693
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问