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国际土地利用/覆盖变化模型研究综述
Review on Land Use and Land Cover Change Models

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张华 1   张勃 2  
文摘 国际上对土地利用/覆盖变化的研究由来已久,近年由于土地利用/覆盖变化对全球变化的贡献及响应,预测土地利用/覆盖变化成为必然.由此,越来越多的科学家致力于研究土地利用/覆盖变化模型,并取得了积极进展.论文介绍了目前国际上土地利用/覆盖变化模型的一些相关问题:①土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的尺度依赖性;②土地利用/覆盖变化模拟的数据问题;③预测土地利用/覆盖变化的位置与数量.回顾了已有的5种主要的土地利用/覆盖变化模型:①基于行为者的土地利用/覆盖变化模型;②经验统计模型;③最优化模型;④混合/综合模型;⑤动力模拟模型.最后总结了现有模型中存在的问题,并探讨了今后土地利用/覆盖变化模型发展的方向.
其他语种文摘 Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) study has been carried out for a long time in the world.Recently,because of contribution and response of LUCC to global change,it is necessary to predict. LUCC.Therefore,more and more scientists devote themselves to studying LUCC models,and have made positive progress in this aspect.This paper presents some correlative issues about LUCC models,i.e.,scale dependency of LUCC modeling,data issues of LUCC model ing,and location and quantity of land-use change prediction.lt reviews the available five kinds of main LUCC models: 1)Agent-based Models of Land-use/Land-cover Change(ABM/ LUCC);2)Empirical statistical models;3)0ptimisation Model;4)Hybrid/Integrated models;and 5)Dynamic simulation models.It then summarizes the problems of the existing models,and discusses the future developing direction of LUCC models.Although much progress has been made in theory and practice of LUCC models,and many new modeling methodology and technique have been developed with multiple purposes,there still exist certain problems in these models.The understanding of LUCC models multi-scale attribute is inadequate and there is a lack of interaction of the temporal and spatial studies of the models,so the validity of the models is affected.Finally,we should further strength the integration of modeling methodology and constitute more effective LUCC models.
来源 自然资源学报 ,2005,20(3):422-431 【核心库】
关键词 土地利用/覆盖 ; 模型 ; 模拟 ; 尺度依赖性
地址

1. 西北师范大学,地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃, 兰州, 730070  

2. 西北师范大学,地理与环境科学学院, 冻土工程国家重点实验室, 甘肃, 兰州, 730070

语种 中文
文献类型 综述型
ISSN 1000-3037
学科 社会科学总论
基金 国家自然科学基金项目 ;  甘肃省中青年科技研究基金 ;  西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程
文献收藏号 CSCD:1991018

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2 胡华科 门限自回归模型及其在耕地总量预测中的应用 安徽农业科学,2007,35(11):3322-3323
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