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文摘
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论文首先指出并不存在联合国粮农组织提出的人均耕地面积阈值；继而认为人均耕地面积阈值具有鲜明的时间和空间特征，需要有明确的前提条件。为此按1995年的耕地实际和（在耕地面积中扣除菜地和经济作物用地面积），以人均400kg,450kg,500kg粮食需求量的生活标准，提出就全国平均而言，人均耕地面积不应小于0.092km^2,0.104hm^2,0.115hm^2（可以看作当前的人均耕地面积阈值）。根据2010，2030，2050年我国的预期耕地面积以及可能达到的生产能力，按人均400kg,450kg,500kg粮食需求量的生活标准，就全国平均而言，2010年人均耕地面积不应小于0.059hm^2,0.067hm^2,0.074hm^2(可以看作近期的人均耕地面积阈值0；2030年人均耕地面积不应小于0.052hm^2,0.058hm^2,0.064hm^2（可以作为中期的人均耕地面积阈值）；2050年人均耕地面积不应小于0.046hm^2,0.052hm^2,0.058hm^2（可以作为远期的人均耕地面积阈值0。 |
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其他语种文摘
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This paper firstly points out that the threshold area of per capita arable land in China identified by FAO does not exist in fact;then advances that the threshold area of per capita arable land,which needs specific premise,has its distinct spatio-temporal characteristics.Therefore,according to the actual productivity of 1995 in China,the corresponding threshold areas of per capita arable land under different food demanding level in China are obtained:0.092 ha for 400kg per capita,0.104 ha 450kg per capita,and 0.115 ha 500kg per capita (the current thresh-old area of per capita arable land in china).And based on the forecasted arable land area and productivity, threshold area of per capita arable land in 2010,2030 and 2050 are also calculated: 0.059 ha,0.067 ha,0.074 ha in 2010(the threshold area of the near future per capita arable land in China ); 0.052 ha,0.058 ha,0.064 ha in 2030 (the threshold area of the mediumterm per capita arable land in China);0.046 ha,0.052 ha,0.058 ha in 2050 (the threshold area of long-term per capita arable land in China). |
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来源
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自然资源学报
,2002,17(5):622-628 【核心库】
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关键词
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人均耕地阈值
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全国
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区域性
;
耕地面积
;
耕地资源
;
粮食生产
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地址
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中国科学院地球科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-3037 |
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学科
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社会科学总论 |
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基金
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中国科学院知识创新工程重点项目
;
国家自然科学基金
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:1118270
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