北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型研究
Modeling economic growth and environmental degradation of Beijing
查看参考文献21篇
|
文摘
|
选取北京市1985～1999年经济与环境数据，通过分析经济因子与环境因子相互关系，探究北京市经济增长与环境质量演替轨迹，以建立北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型，为评价北京市环境政策提供依据。实证研究表明：北京市自1985年以来随着经济增长其环境恶化程度在下降，且已进入经济与环境协调发展后期阶段。北京市各环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征，但比发达国家较早实现了其环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点，且到达转折点的时间跨度小于发达国家。这主要归功于中国及北京市政府近10年来，尤其1995年以来有效环境政策和巨额环境投资以及科技后发优势。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
This paper empirically examines Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with time series data from 1985 to 1999 and provides a basis for the environmental policy evaluation of Beijing. The results lead to two main conclusions: 1) The environmental policy and the environmental investment of Beijing municipal and central governments have made the turning point of EKC come early, being around 10000-150000 yuan at constant price of 1978, or 25000-40000 yuan at present price of 1999, or 3000-5000 US dollars by exchange rates of middle price in the year-end of 1999, or 15000-2000 US dollars calculated in Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP way, and if the GDP per capita grows at the rate of 8%, the turning point will come true during 2005-2010. 2) The relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation takes on an inverted-U, but different regions may have different turning points, different time-spans for realizing the turning point of EKC, and different slopes for the rising-declining pattern. Four points are identified from this examination of the EKC for Beijing: First, this analysis suggests that it is not appropriate to generalize the emergence of EKC for all environmental indicators. Among the 12 main environmental indicators of Beijing, only two do not have enough explanatory meaning for the EKC. On the whole, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Beijing has an obvious EKC character. Second, the efficient environmental policy and the huge environmental investment of the Beijing municipal and central governments have made its turning point of the EKC arrive early. Third, the EKC should not be widely assumed and it is necessary to refer to various and more flexible explanations. In other words, economic factors may be important, but social and natural factors should also be taken into account, such as environmental policy, environmental awareness of residents and the spread of environmental technology. Finally, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation theoretically takes on an inverted-U, but different regions may have different turning points, different time-spans of reaching the EKC turning point, and different slopes of rising-declining pattern. |
|
来源
|
地理研究
,2002,21(2):239-246 【核心库】
|
|
关键词
|
环境库兹涅茨曲线
;
经济增长与污染计量模型
;
北京
|
|
地址
|
1.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
2.
北京市环保局固废管理中心, 北京, 100032
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
1000-0585 |
|
学科
|
社会科学总论 |
|
基金
|
国家自然科学基金
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:968193
|
参考文献 共
21
共2页
|
|
1.
Grossman G M.
Environmental Impacts of A North American Free Trade Agreement,1992
|
CSCD被引
15
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
Shafik N. Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Time Series and Cross-country Evidence.
Background Paper for World Development Report 1992,1992
|
CSCD被引
10
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
Panayotou T. Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development.
Working Paper, Technology and Environment Program,1993
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
Grossman G M. Economic Growth and Environment.
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 4634,1994
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
Selden T. Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution estimates?.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27:147-162
|
CSCD被引
93
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
Beckerman W. Economic Growth and the Environment: Whose Growth? Whose Environment.
World Development,1992,20:481-496
|
CSCD被引
22
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
World Bank.
World Development Report 1992:Development and the Environment,1992
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
Arrow K. Economic Growth, carrying capacity and the environment.
Science,1995,268:520-521
|
CSCD被引
113
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
Various. Forum: economic growth, carrying capacity and the environment.
Ecological Economics,1995,15(2):89-147
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
Ekins S. The Kuznets Curve for the environment and economic growth: examining the evidence.
Environment Planning,1997,29:805-830
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
Magnani E. The environmental Kuznets curve: development path or policy result?.
Environmental Modelling and Software,2001,16(2):157-165
|
CSCD被引
11
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
Xepapadeas A. Some empirical indications of the relationship between environmental quality and economic development.
Environmental and Resource Economics,1998,11:93-106
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
张晓. 中国环境政策的总体评价.
中国社会科学,1999(3):88-98
|
CSCD被引
32
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
洪阳. 环境质量与经济增长的库兹尼茨关系探讨.
上海环境科学,1999,18(3):112-114
|
CSCD被引
13
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
袁雯. 上海城市环境经济系统发展过程的数量分析.
地理研究,2002,21(1):97-106
|
CSCD被引
10
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
张晓东. 90年代中国省级区域经济与环境协调度分析.
地理研究,2001,20(1):506-515
|
CSCD被引
92
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
贺大良. 北京地区风沙活动的变化趋势.
地理研究,1993,12(4):81-84
|
CSCD被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
何春阳. 北京地区土地利用/覆盖变化研究.
地理研究,2001,20(6):679-687
|
CSCD被引
104
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
鲁奇. 北京近百年城市用地变化与相关社会人文因素简论.
地理研究,2001,20(1):688-695
|
CSCD被引
35
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
夏光.
中国环境污染损失的经济计量与研究,1998
|
CSCD被引
15
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问