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Trade Destruction and Trade Deflection:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the US Additional Tariffs

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Zhang Yu 1   Gao Xiang 2   Xu Ran 3   Yang Cuihong 2 *  
文摘 This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China's exports of tariffed products to the US (i.e.,trade destruction effect),especially intermediate and labor-intensive products.On the other hand,they significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to the third market (i.e.,trade deflection effect).For the $50 billion list,both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports,and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to ASEAN,Japan and Australia.For the $200 billion list,the US additional tariffs boost China's exports of chemicals,textiles,wood,metal products,furniture and other products to the EU,Australia,Japan,South Africa and Hong Kong,China.Furthermore,most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices,indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent.The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.
来源 Journal of Systems Science and Complexity ,2023,36(6):2467-2496 【核心库】
DOI 10.1007/s11424-023-1380-0
关键词 DID approach ; trade deflection ; trade destruction ; US additional tariffs
地址

1. Yangtze Industrial Economic Institute,Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093  

2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190  

3. School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266520

语种 英文
文献类型 研究性论文
ISSN 1009-6124
学科 社会科学总论
基金 国家自然科学基金 ;  the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China ;  the Major Project of the Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education
文献收藏号 CSCD:7659083

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