需求不确定性与预测不准确性双重扰动下供应链采购决策研究
Research on supply chain sourcing decision under the dual disturbance of demand uncertainty and forecast inaccuracy
查看参考文献32篇
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文摘
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受外迁/跨区企业纷纷回流国内/当地新趋势的影响,结合新冠疫情常态化新背景,在需求不确定性与预测不准确性双重扰动下提出成本-信号博弈的采购决策模型,探究企业在高效性跨区采购策略与响应性当地采购策略之间的权衡.研究结果表明:企业的采购决策取决于成本与信息的联动表现,跨区采购总能带来强势的成本表现,而当地采购却不能一直发挥信息表现优势.这是因为当企业都选择当地采购,预测信息之间相关性效应会对冲信号精确度效应.新冠疫情加剧需求不稳定与跨区采购预测不准确性会加速企业回流趋势.有趣的是,回流行为可能让所有企业获益,并能打破陷入囚徒困境的对称跨区采购均衡.原因是,回流会诱导出新的非对称混合均衡,消除预测信号相关性来抑制市场竞争.相应地,这种混合均衡会赋予企业"后发优势"实现局部帕累托改进. 随着需求不确定性与预测不准确性的增强,混合均衡会转向对称的当地采购均衡,并能短暂地实现全局帕累托最优,但最终又会陷入双输的囚徒困境.此外,糟糕的当地采购预测会赋予企业"先发优势",这种优势导致先发企业变得更好,而后发企业变得更糟. |
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其他语种文摘
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Motivated by the trend of overseas/cross-regional firms returning to domestic/local and the background of COVID-19 normalization, a sourcing decision model is proposed based on the cost-signal game under the demand uncertainty and forecast inaccuracy. We explore the trade-off between the efficient cross-regional sourcing and responsive local sourcing. The results show that the sourcing decision depends on the linkage performances of cost and information. Cross-regional sourcing always brings mighty cost performance, while the local sourcing can not always give full play to information performance advantage. Because if both firms choose local sourcing, the correlation effect between forecast information will hedge signal accuracy effect. Greater demand uncertainty and more accurate cross-regional sourcing forecast are driving films to return. Interestingly, this return may benefit all the firms, and break the Prisoner's Dilemma of symmetric cross-regional sourcing. The reason is that the returning can alleviate competition by inducing a new equilibrium sourcing structure. In response, this mixed equilibrium endows firms with "follower advantage" to realize local-Pareto improvement. With the increase of demand uncertainty and forecast inaccuracy, this mixed equilibrium will turn to the symmetric local sourcing, which temporarily reaches the overall Pareto-optimum. However, it will eventually fall into the Prisoner's Dilemma of lose-lose situation. In addition, it is also found that the poor local sourcing forecast will endow firms with "mover advantage", which will lead to the mover becoming better while the follower becoming worse. |
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来源
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系统工程理论与实践
,2022,42(11):2869-2880 【核心库】
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DOI
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10.12011/SETP2021-2320
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关键词
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采购决策
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跨区采购
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当地采购
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需求不确定性
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预测不准确性
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新冠疫情
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地址
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1.
大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院, 大连, 116026
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河南大学商学院, 开封, 475000
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-6788 |
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学科
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社会科学总论 |
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基金
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国家社会科学基金重点项目
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:7350013
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