基于地方志的1736-1911年华北秋粮丰歉指数序列重建及其与气候变化的关系
Reconstruction of poor/bumper autumn harvest index series based on historical chorography and its relationship with climate change in North China from 1736 to 1911
查看参考文献36篇
|
文摘
|
粮食作物的收成丰歉与气候要素的关联是研究历史时期气候变化社会影响的重要切入点。利用清代地方志中的收成丰歉记录,以语义差异法对收成等级进行区分,重建了1736- 1911年华北地区秋粮丰收和歉收指数序列,定量分析收成变化特征及其与同期温度和降水变化的关系,并对比以往常用的官方收成分数奏报记录,探讨地方志资料在重建历史粮食收成变化中的优势和不足。结果表明:①地方志中的歉收记录相比丰收记录更为可靠,重建的歉收指数序列可在相当程度上描述总体收成的变化,就宏观趋势而言,19世纪歉收风险相比18世纪显著增加。②歉收指数序列与10年、5年尺度的温度变化均呈显著负相关关系,反映气候转冷可显著提升歉收风险;在年际尺度上,歉收指数序列与降水呈显著负相关,与旱灾指数序列的相关系数则达到0.71(p < 0.001),体现出极端旱灾对于华北粮食收成的严重威胁。③地方志中的收成记录虽在量化精度上不如奏报,但其歉收记录对于极端减产年份的反映更为准确,两者在实际应用中存在一定的互补性。以上结论有助于改进利用历史文献资料研究过去气候变化影响的技术手段,并深化气候变化对过去农业生产系统影响规律的科学认识。 |
|
其他语种文摘
|
The relationship between grain crop harvest and climate change (temperature and precipitation) has been a major topic in the research on social impact of climate change in the past. With 5099 records on poor and bumper autumn harvests kept in historical chorography, annual harvest grade at county scale is quantified using semantic differential method, and the poor/bumper autumn harvest index series in North China from 1739 to 1911 is reconstructed. The variable characteristics of autumn harvest and its relationship with climate change are analyzed, and the reliability and applicability of historical harvest records from chorography are discussed by comparing them with those of the records from official documents in the Qing Dynasty. Results show that, first, the poor harvest records from chorography are more reliable than the bumper ones, and the poor harvest index series can reflect the fluctuation of overall autumn harvest to some extent. At the centennial scale, the autumn harvest markedly turned worse in the 19th century than in the 18th century. Second, the poor harvest index series are significantly and negatively correlated with temperature change at 10- and 5- year scales. Therefore, the poor harvest is sensitive to temperature decline. At an annual scale, the poor harvest is also significantly and negatively correlated with precipitation change, and the correlation coefficient between the poor harvest and drought index is up to 0.71 (p < 0.001). That is, drought is a larger threat to crop production than flood in North China. Third, compared with the harvest records kept in official documents that are reported to the government by local officials, the records from chorography have some advantages in the reconstruction of historical harvest. The records on poor harvest from chorography are more reliable than those from official documents, thereby allowing the index series to describe extreme events of crop production drop exactly. The two historical data sources can be complementary to each other; however, direct interpolation without data rectification may increase the system errors. This study is expected to contribute to the method improvement in the usage of historical documents in reconstructing the social impacts of climate change and the deepening in scientific knowledge on the impact rules of climate change on the agricultural production in the past. |
|
来源
|
地理学报
,2019,74(9):1777-1788 【核心库】
|
|
DOI
|
10.11821/dlxb201909006
|
|
关键词
|
气候变化
;
社会影响
;
粮食收成
;
历史地方志
;
华北
|
|
地址
|
1.
中国人民大学清史研究所, 北京, 100872
2.
信阳师范学院地理科学学院, 信阳, 464000
3.
信阳师范学院气候与环境演变重点实验室, 信阳, 464000
|
|
语种
|
中文 |
|
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
|
ISSN
|
0375-5444 |
|
学科
|
农业基础科学 |
|
基金
|
国家自然科学基金项目
;
国家社会科学基金重大项目
;
信阳师范学院南湖学者奖励计划青年项目
|
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:6576062
|
参考文献 共
36
共2页
|
|
1.
IPCC.
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC),2014
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
2.
IHOPE.
Developing an Integrated History and Future of People on Earth: Research Plan (IGBP Report No.59),2010
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
|
3.
葛全胜. 中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示.
地球科学进展,2014,29(1):23-29
|
CSCD被引
26
次
|
|
|
|
|
4.
方修琦. 粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理.
地理科学,2014,34(11):1291-1298
|
CSCD被引
32
次
|
|
|
|
|
5.
方修琦. 历史气候变化影响研究中的社会经济等级序列重建方法探讨.
第四纪研究,2014,34(6):1204-1214
|
CSCD被引
11
次
|
|
|
|
|
6.
方修琦. 冷暖-丰歉-饥荒-农民起义:基于粮食安全的历史气候变化影响在中国社会系统中的传递.
中国科学:地球科学,2015,45(6):831-842
|
CSCD被引
17
次
|
|
|
|
|
7.
张家诚. 气候变化对中国农业生产的影响初探.
地理研究,1982,1(2):8-15
|
CSCD被引
15
次
|
|
|
|
|
8.
苏筠. 气候变化对中国西汉至五代(206BC~960AD)粮食丰歉的影响.
中国科学:地球科学,2014,44(1):146-155
|
CSCD被引
12
次
|
|
|
|
|
9.
Yin Jun. Relationships between temperature change and grain harvest fluctuations in China from 210 BC to 1910 AD.
Quaternary International,2015,355(1):153-163
|
CSCD被引
12
次
|
|
|
|
|
10.
Yin Jun. Correlation between climate and grain harvest fluctuations and the dynastic transitions and prosperity in China over the past two millennia.
Holocene,2016,26(12):1914-1923
|
CSCD被引
11
次
|
|
|
|
|
11.
龚高法. 应用史料丰歉记载研究北京地区降水量对冬小麦收成的影响.
气象学报,1983,41(4):444-451
|
CSCD被引
5
次
|
|
|
|
|
12.
葛全胜. 人口压力、气候变化与太平天国运动.
地理研究,1995,14(4):32-41
|
CSCD被引
13
次
|
|
|
|
|
13.
郝志新. 1736年以来西安气候变化与农业收成的相关分析.
地理学报,2003,58(5):735-742
|
CSCD被引
19
次
|
|
|
|
|
14.
郝志新. 1876~1878年华北大旱:史实,影响及气候背景.
科学通报,2010,55(23):2321-2328
|
CSCD被引
18
次
|
|
|
|
|
15.
谢美娥. 自然灾害、生产收成与清代台湾米价的变动(1738-1850).
中国经济史研究,2010(4):110-127
|
CSCD被引
4
次
|
|
|
|
|
16.
马国英. 晚清粮食收成分数研究(1875-1908):以山西省为例.
西北师大学报(社会科学版),2015,52(3):57-63
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
|
17.
郑斯中. 1400-1949年广东省的气候振动及其对粮食丰歉的影响.
地理学报,1983,38(1):25-32
|
CSCD被引
6
次
|
|
|
|
|
18.
李世奎.
中国农业气候资源和农业气候区划,1988
|
CSCD被引
63
次
|
|
|
|
|
19.
丁一汇.
中国气候,2013
|
CSCD被引
30
次
|
|
|
|
|
20.
Ge Quansheng. Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere.
Climate of the Past,2013,9(3):1153-1160
|
CSCD被引
47
次
|
|
|
|
|
了解气象卫星更多信息，请访问