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“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险
Geographical patterns and environmental change risks in terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road

吴绍洪 ^1,2 刘路路 ^1,2 刘燕华 ^1,2 ^* 高江波 ¹ 戴尔阜 ^1,2 冯爱青 ³

文摘	“一带一路”建设是中国在新时期推动国际合作共赢的倡议,旨在打造绿色、健康、智力、和平丝绸之路,保障“一带一路”沿线各国人民共同发展.系统分析“一带一路”沿线国家环境特征、演化趋势与未来风险格局,是“一带一路”建设的科学基础.应用遥感监测、统计资料,探究“一带一路”陆域气候、地形、土壤、水文、植被环境要素空间分布特征和时空差异;依据经典综合自然区划的方法论,将“一带一路”陆域划分为中东欧寒冷湿润区、蒙俄寒冷干旱区、中亚西亚干旱区、东南亚温暖湿润区、巴基斯坦干旱区、孟印缅温暖湿润区、中国东部季风区、中国西北干旱区和青藏高原区等9个区域.结合模型模拟、情景预估等技术手段,将自然灾害损失评估方法论用于预估未来30年高温热浪、干旱和洪涝等突发性极端事件的灾害风险,以趋势—基线对比方法预估宏观生态系统、粮食生产等渐变事件的风险.结果显示,亚欧大陆西部将是暖干趋势;青藏高原两侧区域高温热浪高风险;中东欧寒冷湿润区东部干旱高风险;孟印缅温暖湿润区和中国东部季风区洪涝高风险;荒漠边缘区域为生态脆弱高风险区;中低纬区域为粮食减产高风险区.
其他语种文摘	Construction of the Belt and Road, an advocacy of China to promote win- win international cooperation in the new era, aims at building green, healthy, intellectual and peaceful Silk Road and ensuring joint development with the people of the countries along the Belt and Road. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risk pattern is a scientific fundamental of sustainable development for the construction. Based on remote sensing monitoring and statistical analysis, this paper studies spatial- temporal characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and production of terrestrial ecosystems. Taking the methodology of the classical integrated natural regionalization, the region is delineated into 9 sub- regions: Central and Eastern Europe, Mongolia and Russia, Central and Western Asia, Southeastern Asia, Pakistan, Bangladesh- India- Myanmar, Eastern China, Northwestern China and Tibetan Plateau. By combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of abrupt extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods in the next 30 years. And trend-baseline comparison method is applied to assess the risk of gradual change events in macro- ecosystems, food production, etc. Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would show a warming trend; both sides of Tibetan Plateau are in high temperature and heat waves risk; cold- wet region of central and eastern Europe in high drought risk; monsoon area of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar as well as eastern China in high risk of flooding; the desert margin areas in high ecological fragile risk; the middle and low latitude areas in high risk of grain production.
来源	地理学报 ,2018,73(7):1214-1225 【核心库】
DOI	10.11821/dlxb201807003
关键词	“一带一路” ; 地理格局 ; 环境变化 ; 风险
地址	1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京, 100101 2. 中国科学院大学, 北京, 100049 3. 中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京, 100081
语种	中文
文献类型	研究性论文
ISSN	0375-5444
学科	自然地理学;环境科学基础理论
基金	国家自然科学基金重点项目 ; 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所特色所培育项目
文献收藏号	CSCD:6278864

参考文献共 31 共2页

引证文献 21 篇

1 赖晨曦全球土地覆被数据集中哈萨克斯坦草地分布的异同及其成因地球信息科学学报,2019,21(3):372-383
CSCD被引 0 次

2 范泽孟新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊土地覆被变化及驱动力分析生态学报,2019,39(14):5015-5027
CSCD被引 6 次

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论文科学数据集

1. 中亚土地资源脆弱性数据集（V1.0）（1995-2015）

2. 青藏高原重要城镇化地区生境质量演化情景数据集（2020-2050）

3. 祁连山-阿尔金山区250米分辨率地质灾害危险性图（2022）

数据来源：

国家青藏高原科学数据中心

1. 1995-2020年城村汉城遗址洪涝风险评估数据

2. 1995-2020年福建省古遗址所在区域风险数据

3. 2018年7月老挝耕地损毁面积

数据来源：

国家对地观测科学数据中心

PlumX Metrics

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“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险 Geographical patterns and environmental change risks in terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road

“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险
Geographical patterns and environmental change risks in terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road