全球农产品贸易网络及其演化分析
Analysis on Global Agricultural Trade Network and Its Evolution
查看参考文献19篇
文摘
|
论文基于复杂网络视角,选择谷物、油料、纤维、糖料、果蔬、肉类6大类57种农产品,用1986—2013年间的贸易数据,构建全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了这个复杂网络的特征和演化趋势。结果表明:1)1986—2013年,全球农产品贸易总量增加了2.26倍,其中油料作物增加幅度最大,增加了4.97倍。参与到全球农产品贸易网络中的国家(地区)逐年增多。2)拟合节点累积度分布的幂函数曲线,表明全球农产品贸易节点度分布具有不均匀性,节点度小的节点数量多,节点度大的节点数量少,满足幂律分布。“枢纽”节点不断成长。3)全球农产品贸易网络密度上升、平均路径长度下降、多元化趋势加强、网络结构复杂化等特征日益突出。4)我国农产品进口来源国(地区)集中程度较高,农产品进口潜在风险较大。一方面要进一步扩大开放,拓展进口来源国(地区)的数量,更好地利用国际资源;另一方面强化农业基础,提高农业综合生产能力,防范风险,保障粮食安全。 |
其他语种文摘
|
This paper analyzes global agriculture trade and its evolution with complex network methods. Using international trade data during 1986-2013, we selected 57 kinds of agricultural products belonging to six major categories of cereals, oil crops, sugars, fibers, fruits, vegetables and meats, and constructed trade network of international agricultural products at different periods. The evolution trend and current situation of global agriculture trade were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that total trade of international agricultural products increased 2.26 times during 1986-2013. Oil crops had the maximum growth which increased 4.97 times. The number of global agricultural import and export countries involved in agricultural trade network was increasing. By fitting the cumulative distribution function curve of nodes'degree in the trade network, we can find that the distribution of nodes'degree satisfies power- law distribution that a majority of nodes have small degree while only a few nodes have large degree. The hub nodes continuously grew up. The density of global agricultural trade network rose while the average path length declined, and the trend of diversification strengthened. The agricultural products import of China depended on a few countries and thus there is potential risk of agricultural products import. On one hand, our country should enlarge opening to extend the source of import and make full use of international resources; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the agricultural foundation and improve the comprehensive production capacity so that we can prevent risks and ensure national food security more efficiently. |
来源
|
自然资源学报
,2018,33(6):940-953 【核心库】
|
DOI
|
10.31497/zrzyxb.20180403
|
关键词
|
经济全球化
;
农产品贸易
;
复杂网络
;
幂律分布
;
粮食安全
|
地址
|
1.
兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州, 730000
2.
西部环境教育部重点实验室, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 730000
3.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
|
语种
|
中文 |
文献类型
|
研究性论文 |
ISSN
|
1000-3037 |
学科
|
社会科学总论 |
基金
|
中国科学院重点部署项目
;
兰州大学“一带一路”专项项目
;
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
|
文献收藏号
|
CSCD:6261418
|
参考文献 共
19
共1页
|
1.
成升魁.
2010中国资源报告--资源流动:格局、效应及对策,2011
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
2.
Huang H. Climate change and trade in agriculture.
Food Policy,2011,36(S1):S9-S13
|
CSCD被引
13
次
|
|
|
|
3.
.
FAOSTAT Statistical Database
|
CSCD被引
3
次
|
|
|
|
4.
Brown L R. Who Will Feed China?.
Wake-up Call for a Small Plant,1995
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
5.
中华人民共和国海关总署《海关统计》部.
中国海关统计年鉴2016,2017
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
6.
Newman M E J. The structure and function of complex network.
SIAM Review,2003,45(2):167-256
|
CSCD被引
989
次
|
|
|
|
7.
Serrano M A. Topology of the world TradeWeb.
Physical Review,2003,68:15-31
|
CSCD被引
1
次
|
|
|
|
8.
Li X. Complexity and synchronization of the world trade web.
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2003,328:287-296
|
CSCD被引
33
次
|
|
|
|
9.
Garlaschelli D. Generalized Bose-Fermi statistics and structural correlations in weighted networks.
Physical Review Letters,2009,102(3):038701
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
10.
Konar M. Water for food: The global virtual water trade network.
Water Resources Research,2011,47(5):W05520
|
CSCD被引
7
次
|
|
|
|
11.
Geng J B. A dynamic analysis on global natural gas trade network.
Applied Energy,2014,132(1):23-33
|
CSCD被引
15
次
|
|
|
|
12.
刘立涛. 基于复杂网络理论的中国石油流动格局及供应安全分析.
资源科学,2017,39(8):1431-1443
|
CSCD被引
26
次
|
|
|
|
13.
Dalin C. Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(16):5989-5994
|
CSCD被引
17
次
|
|
|
|
14.
林聚任.
社会网络分析:理论、方法与应用,2009
|
CSCD被引
24
次
|
|
|
|
15.
刘劲松. 基于社会网络分析的世界天然气贸易格局演化.
经济地理,2016,36(12):89-95
|
CSCD被引
16
次
|
|
|
|
16.
Fagiolo G. Clustering in complex directed networks.
Physical Review E,2007,76(2):026107
|
CSCD被引
15
次
|
|
|
|
17.
Ji Q. Identification of global oil trade patterns: An empirical research based on complex network theory.
Energy Conversion & Management,2014,85(9):856-865
|
CSCD被引
22
次
|
|
|
|
18.
黄季焜.
中国主要农产品供需变动趋势预测分析,2013
|
CSCD被引
2
次
|
|
|
|
19.
刘爱民. 我国大宗农产品贸易格局及对外依存度研究——基于虚拟耕地资源的分析和评价.
自然资源学报,2017,32(6):915-926
|
CSCD被引
16
次
|
|
|
|
|