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Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM

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文摘 Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991–2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic–analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic–analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from –0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009–13/1991–95 when using the equally weighted dynamic–analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.
来源 Journal of Meteorological Research ,2017,31(6):1085-1095 【核心库】
DOI 10.1007/s13351-017-7069-3
关键词 summer precipitation ; northeastern China ; sea surface temperature ; El Nino–Southern Oscillation ; Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model ; dynamic–analogue correction ; probabilistic prediction
地址

1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster;;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education;;Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing, 210044  

2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Laboratory for Climate Studies, CMA, Beijing, 100081  

3. Liaoning Meteorological Service Center, Shenyang, 110016

语种 英文
文献类型 研究性论文
ISSN 2095-6037
学科 大气科学(气象学)
基金 Supported by the Science and Technology Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau ;  江苏高校优势学科建设工程 ;  Liaoning Province Agricultural Research and Industrialization Project ;  China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research
文献收藏号 CSCD:6145595

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