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中国能源供给安全综合评价及障碍因素分析
Energy supply security assessment of China and the influencing factors based on set pair analysis

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文摘 作为能源生产和消费大国,中国的能源供给安全问题一直备受关注,甚至有一些别有用心的国际机构大肆宣扬“中国能源威胁论”。针对中国能源供给存在的实际突出问题,开展能源供给安全综合评价研究,有助于深刻认识中国能源供给安全形势,找出中国能源供给安全的主要影响因子和强化政策保障。从能源供给安全的概念出发,构建中国能源供给安全综合评价指标体系,基于集对分析方法构建能源供给安全评估模型,借鉴指标评价标准模型建立指标评价标准值,运用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,对近年来中国能源供给安全的等级、演变特征及主要影响因素进行了深入分析。研究结果表明:2000-2008年中国能源供给安全评价等级为III,2009年和2011年上升为I级,2010年为II级。中国能源供给安全指数与最优评价集I 的联系度由2000年的-0.46增至2011年的0.23,呈波动上升趋势。中国能源供给安全影响因素分析显示,能源产品价格指数和能源加工转换效率是第一位的影响因素,在各年份的出现频率达到91.67%,其次为可再生能源所占比重和储采比,出现频率达到83.33%。
其他语种文摘 As a large energy production and consumption country, China's energy supply security issues have attracted much concern. Even some international organizations which have ulterior motives heavily hype "China energy threat". For the actual outstanding problems of China's energy supply, we need to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the energy supply security. It helps to make a profound understanding of China's energy supply security situation and identify the major obstacle factors. And based on this we could strengthen policy protection. According to the concept of energy supply security, the paper built comprehensive evaluation index system of energy supply security, the assessment model and indicators evaluation criterion model based on set pair analysis method. The entropy method was applied to determine the index weights. And the level of energy supply security, the evolution feature and the main obstacle factors in recent years were profoundly analyzed. The results of the research show that from 2000 to 2008 China's energy supply security level is III, it rises to II in 2010 and I in 2009 and 2011. The relation degree between China's energy supply security exponent and optimal evaluation set I rises with fluctuations, increasing from -0.46 in 2000 to 0.23 in 2011. The obstacle factors analysis of China's energy supply security shows that the price index of energy products and energy processing and conversion efficiency are the top two obstacle factors, whose occurrence frequency reach to 91.67%, followed by the renewable energy share and the reserve-production ratio reaching to 83.33%. In recent years, China's energy consumption continuously increased, while the energy supply security level improved rather than fall, which is inseparable from the implementation of positive energy policy. Based on domestic resources advantages and development base, enhancing the energy supply support capability; technological innovation; improving energy efficiency; diversified development; deepening reform, building system and mechanism for promoting energy sustainable development; enhancing energy "going out" and "bringing in" level. All the above measures effectively promoted China's energy supply security and provide a good opportunity and the environment for China's energy development. In the long run, with comprehensive national power increasing and technological progress, there is a big potential for China’s energy supply, and the energy supply security has greater room for improvement.
来源 地理研究 ,2014,33(5):842-852 【核心库】
关键词 能源供给安全 ; 集对分析 ; 评价标准 ; 障碍度 ; 中国
地址

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101

语种 中文
文献类型 研究性论文
ISSN 1000-0585
基金 国家自然科学基金项目 ;  中国科学院先导项目
文献收藏号 CSCD:5146154

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引证文献 12 篇

1 薛静静 中国能源生产和消费大省的能源供给安全综合评价及优化——以陕西省和广东省为例 自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1686-1697
CSCD被引 4 次

2 杨宇 能源地缘政治视角下中国与中亚—俄罗斯国际能源合作模式 地理研究,2015,34(2):213-224
CSCD被引 23 次

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