Assessment on Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Model
查看参考文献30篇
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文摘
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Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was established according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respectively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combination weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the assessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently |
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来源
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Chinese Geographical Science
,2011,21(2):167-175 【核心库】
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DOI
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10.1007/s11769-011-0456-2
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关键词
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variable fuzzy sets
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relative membership degree
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agricultural drought risk
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risk assessment
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Liaoning Province
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地址
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Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024
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语种
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英文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1002-0063 |
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学科
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自然地理学 |
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基金
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Under the auspices of Key Program of National Key Technology R & D Program of China
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:4155121
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