中国农业氧化亚氮排放情景研究
Wilfried Winiwarter Modeling N_2O Emissions from Agriculture in China
查看参考文献21篇
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文摘
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采用国际应用系统分析研究所的"牲畜和粮食产量动态模型",模拟出2000-2030年间中国粮食和牲畜的数量和需求量的地理分布,然后应用GAINS模型预测我国未来农业N_2O排放量.结果显示,2000年我国农业N_2O排放量为1533 kt N_2O,到2030年将增加到2000 kt N_2O左右,增长31%;农田N_2O排放占农业N_2O总排放量的80%,2030年农田N_2O的排放量比2000年增长37%.由于活动水平数据的模拟结果不同,各情景的N_2O排放量不同,其中INMIC_低情景中N_2O的排放量稍高于中、高排放情景.我国农业N_2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北,江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省,到2030年,黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆、云南和湖南五省的N_2O增加量在30 kt N_2O以上.硝化抑制剂作为N_2O的减排措施,从2015年开始实施,减排效率由4%上升到16%.采用IPCC默认排放因子会高估我国农田N_2O排放. |
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其他语种文摘
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The livestock and crop production model developed at IIASA generates geographic distribution of demand and production of crops and livestock products,for a time horizon of 30 years from 2000 to 2030 with 5-year time step.Activity data derived from this model were uploaded to GAINS model to simulate agricultural N_2O emissions in China.The results show that agricultural N_2O emissions will rise from 1533 to 2000kt N_2O by 2030,with an increase of 31%.N_2O emissions from cropland account for 80% of the total agricultural N_2O,with an increase of 37% from 2000 to 2030.Emissions from INMIC_low scenario are a little higher than high and central scenarios,because the projections of activity data are different.Agricultural N_2O emissions are centralized in Shandong,Henan,Sichuan,Hebei,Jiangsu,Hunan,Yunnan and Anhui.By 2030,the increases of agricultural N_2O emissions are more than 30kt N_2O in Heilongjiang,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Yunnan and Hunan.As a mitigation measure,nitrogen inhibitors which are implemented in 2015 will allow reducing agricultural N_2O emissions by 4% to 16%.Applying IPCC default emission factors will overestimate N_2O from cropland. |
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来源
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地理科学进展
,2009,28(4):636-642 【核心库】
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关键词
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GAINS
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农业
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氧化亚氮
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排放情景
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中国
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地址
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中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1007-6301 |
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学科
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大气科学(气象学) |
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基金
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国家自然科学基金
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国际应用系统分析研究所青年科学家暑期项目
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国家科技支撑计划项目
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:3654315
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