水资源经济政策CGE模型及在北京市的应用
Simulation of Water Policy for Beijing Based on CGE Model
查看参考文献64篇
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文摘
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水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义，本文采用2002年北京市投入产出表和有关的水资源公报等数据．通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE（Computable General Equilibrium）模型和相应的42×53多部门水资源投入产出表，利用GEMPACK软件包，对北京市水资源经济政策进行了模拟和分析。模拟显示。当水价增加10％时，行业产出和销售量变化呈现不同的特点和变动趋势；当水量增加10％时。造成行业产出的变化和销售量的变动也值得深虑。该成果可为制定和实施水资源政策提供决策参考及模拟平台。 |
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其他语种文摘
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Due to climate change, uneven distribution of precipitation and diversified geoconditions, Beijing is facing serious water problems. Now this negative impact tendency develops increasingly fast due to population boost, rapid GDP growth and urbanization. Governments and international communities encourage solving those water crises by means of integrated river basin management and urban water system innovation. It has become a must to give a deep research of water resource economics for sustainable development and promoting social market functions.
Water prices and waster water fees are two major factors in water resource economics analysis and give a great impact on national economy. Most researchers have used part equilibrium model to analyze relationship between water price, GDP growth and industry output. But in some cases, it would give unreasonable results according to some experts research. For this reason, scientists are using general equilibrium model to analyze the change of GDP and industry output affected by water resource policies. GEMPACK soft package is a wonderful calculation tool for CGE model. The paper builds 43＊53-sector input-output table for water CGE model. In this paper the authors use it to simulate Beijing water resource policy.
The paper researches four aspects： first, factors which affect water resource policy; second, rules of water supply and demand; third, evaluating water resource and building water resources input and output table; and fourth, establishing water CGE model and simulating water policy by GEMPACK software. The innovations also focus on such issues.
The simulation gives two scenarios： （1） increase water price by 10 percent; and （2） increase water quantity by 10 percent. The results are as follows according the simulation：
1） Water resource policy affects GDP and industry output
Water resource is a strategic social economical resource and it will affect industry output and commodity production. There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture has the same tendency as water price change and it is more sensitive to water quantity than to water price. So water saving technology gives more contribution to agriculture and should be given more priority. For basic energy industries such as Oil, Chemistry and Gas, they show diversity tendency： some of them would increase while others will decrease when increasing water price or quantity. As to some high water consuming industries such as Paper and Textile, water resource economic policy can affect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology. Waste water and Construction and Service industries show the same tendency as water policy.
2） Government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration
The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer prices change more than expected as to water policy for water industry in a free market economy. So government policy makers should be more carefully to prepare suitable forecasts and plans for water policies and their negative impacts.
The paper achieves simulation of water policies by using CGE model and GEMPACK software and the result will give theoretic and practical suggestions to urban water price innovation and policy decision. |
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来源
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地理科学进展
,2008,27(3):141-151 【核心库】
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关键词
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水资源
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经济政策
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CGE模型
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北京市
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地址
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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 陆地水文及地表过程重点实验室, 北京, 100101
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中国科学院农业政策研究中心, 北京, 100101
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1007-6301 |
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学科
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社会科学总论;水利工程 |
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基金
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国家自然科学基金
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科学技术部国际合作专项（2006DFA21890）
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中国科学院国际合作重点项目（GJHZ06）
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:3352947
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