中国人口与资源环境耦合的演进分析
Evolutional Analysis of Coupling between Population and Resource-environment in China
查看参考文献16篇
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文摘
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改革开放以来,中国人口和经济快速发展,对资源环境影响强烈.建立评价指标体系,用主成分分析和协调发展度模型研究1985-2004年中国人口与资源环境耦合的演进态势,结果表明:①人口综合发展水平整体不断提高,而在后期稍有回落,1998年其指数达到该时段最大值0.809 4,资源环境综合状况波动下降,其指数由1985年的0.551 1降至2004年的-0.147 9;②人口和资源环境的耦合关系由极度失调趋向初级协调,后又转向中度失调,1994年协调发展度达到该时段最大值0.637 9;③1994年,我国人均GDP仅有3 923元(当年价),与全面小康标准差距较大,资源环境容量空间有限,可持续发展面临巨大压力;④人口系统与资源环境系统不协同发展贯穿了这一时段,是两者耦合关系变化的直接原因,应选择人口与资源环境良性互动的协调发展模式. |
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其他语种文摘
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Due to rapid population growth and economic developing since reform and opening to the outside world, resource-environment has been influenced intensively in China, so the man-land contradiction is becoming more and more obvious.
Based on the panel and serial statistical data, status of population and resource-environment coupling has been researched by the principal component analysis and the coordinated development degree model in China during 1985 -2OO4.The results are: CD On one hand, the comprehensive development capability of population has increased continuously. The maximum integrated population development index reached 0.809 4 in 1998.On the other hand, the comprehensive status of resource-environment has declined with a fluctuant falling trend since 1985,and its integrated index has decreased from 0.551 1 to -0.147 9.Population development is at the cost of unsustainable utilization of resource-environment. ?The relationship of population and resource-environment coupling varies gradually from awful maladjustment to elementary harmony, and then to secondaiy maladjustment. The maximum coordinated development degree came up to 0.637 9 in 1994.The direct cause of variation of coupling relationship is that population system and resource-environment system didn't continuously cooperate with each other from 1985 to 2004. ?The carrying capability of resource-environment is limited while demands of human being are increasingly expanding, so sustainable development faces huge pressure in China. It is difficult to achieve the goal of ensuring our people a relative comfortable life since China's per capita GDP was only 3 923 yuan in 1994. ?Suggestions that would make for sustainable development were put forward in this paper, such as controlling population quantity, improving population quality, making progress in lechnology, strengthening protection to resource-environment, and moderation consumption. The coordinated development mode that makes population and resource-environment interact well should be chosen. |
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来源
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自然资源学报
,2006,21(6):853-861 【核心库】
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关键词
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人口
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资源环境
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耦合
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主成分分析
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协调发展度
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中国
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地址
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兰州大学,资源环境学院, 兰州, 730000
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-3037 |
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学科
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社会科学总论 |
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基金
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国家软科学研究计划项目
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:2539701
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16
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