气候变化对中国黄淮海农业区小麦生产影响模拟研究
Simulation of the Impact of Climate Change on Chinese Wheat Production in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
查看参考文献18篇
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文摘
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研究首先利用1980-2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CERES-Wheat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERES-Wheat模型与两个全球气候模式（GISS和Hadley）结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SRES A2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势.得到如下结论：在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加.因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题.在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明. |
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其他语种文摘
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The global climate is changing due to constant increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases.The latest climate simulation result indicates that even more drastic change will take place in future global climate,which might exert significant impacts on many production sectors, particularly agricuhure.Agricuhure is a fundamental production sector for society,as China is an agricultural country with a large population,climate change will bound to exert multiple impacts on Chinese agricultural production.Therefore,using clinmate change projects and crop models to acquire a understanding of the impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture,especially on winter wheat,is extremely helpful to policy makers and international agencies.CERES-Wheat,a dynamic process crop growth model,has been calibrated and validated for current production at ten sites in the major winter wheat-growing region of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China.With the aid of the two Global Climate Models （GISS and Hadley）,the present study simulates the production changes under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios.The simulations consider the impacts on rainfed and irrigated winter wheat with and without CO2 fertilization.The results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in this region,with marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production.The conclusion is that an overall reduction of the rainfed wheat yield was observed in the study area, the yield reduction extent is greater in the western part and smaller in the eastern,taking no account of direct CO2 fertilization effect while the irrigated wheat yield keeps the current level with the increase in irrigation water amount but without considering the CO2 fertilization effect. Meantime both the rainfed and irrigated wheat yield increased largely with the consideration of the CO2 fertilization effect,but the increasing extent of rainfed wheat is greater than the irrigated wheat because the CO2 fertilization effect improves significantly water use efficiency and reduces the irrigation water amount.Our simulation results also showed that the selection of GCM could significantly affect final predictions,especially in relation to precipitation signals.By contrast,we found that the selection of emission scenario （A2 vs. B2） was less important in determining final impacts. |
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来源
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自然资源学报
,2006,21(4):598-607 【核心库】
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关键词
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气候变化
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CERES-Wheat作物模型
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SRES情景
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全球气候模式
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地址
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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101
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语种
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中文 |
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文献类型
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研究性论文 |
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ISSN
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1000-3037 |
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学科
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农业基础科学 |
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基金
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中国科学院“百人计划”项目
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国家973计划
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文献收藏号
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CSCD:2460111
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